News & Discussion: National Broadband Network

[Waewick]

I don't really understand why people expect the Liberals to do something Labor didn't do either.

not saying it is right.

[monotonehell]

I don't really understand why people expect the Liberals to do something Labor didn't do either.

not saying it is right.

In the context of this topic, what do you mean?

[rubberman]

I don't really understand why people expect the Liberals to do something Labor didn't do either.

not saying it is right.

In the context of this topic, what do you mean?

I think he means the myth put round by Coalition supporters that Labor did not undertake a business case for the NBN. Which, of course, was something rather economical of the truth for the Coalition to say.

Having said that, given the Coalition were not in office and did not have the resources to spend multi-millions of dollars on business case, as the Government did do, it is unreasonable to expect the Coalition to have one at this point. However, should they proceed without one, then they are fools.

At least, if the present Coalition Government does an extensive business case, as did the previous Labor Government, they might get a 'whoops' moment and try to spin their way out of the big hole appearing under their feet on this one.

[monotonehell]

...At least, if the present Coalition Government does an extensive business case, as did the previous Labor Government, they might get a 'whoops' moment and try to spin their way out of the big hole appearing under their feet on this one.

That's pretty much the case I think. The point isn't that they do not have a business case. The point is that their plan is fundamentally flawed. I don't see how the Libs can move forward with this, having painted themselves into a corner this way. They went to the election with a fabrication. Any kind of serious planning now will result in the plan being revealed to be fundamentally flawed.

I'm very interested to see their next move on this. I'm hoping that they just cancel the whole thing, because to move forward with their plan (as I have said all along) will be a terrible waste of money.

[Waewick]

I don't really understand why people expect the Liberals to do something Labor didn't do either.

not saying it is right.

In the context of this topic, what do you mean?

I think he means the myth put round by Coalition supporters that Labor did not undertake a business case for the NBN. Which, of course, was something rather economical of the truth for the Coalition to say.

Having said that, given the Coalition were not in office and did not have the resources to spend multi-millions of dollars on business case, as the Government did do, it is unreasonable to expect the Coalition to have one at this point. However, should they proceed without one, then they are fools.

At least, if the present Coalition Government does an extensive business case, as did the previous Labor Government, they might get a 'whoops' moment and try to spin their way out of the big hole appearing under their feet on this one.

So they did do a business plan? where the hell is it? I couldn't find a copy or a review of it anywhere.

[rubberman]

So they did do a business plan? where the hell is it? I couldn't find a copy or a review of it anywhere.

Here is a pdf of the 35 page Summary.

http://images.smh.com.au/file/2010/11/2 ... ummary.pdf

A contemporary commentary in the technical press:

http://www.zdnet.com/nbn-business-case- ... 339308102/

[Waewick]

So they did do a business plan? where the hell is it? I couldn't find a copy or a review of it anywhere.

Here is a pdf of the 35 page Summary.

http://images.smh.com.au/file/2010/11/2 ... ummary.pdf

A contemporary commentary in the technical press:

http://www.zdnet.com/nbn-business-case- ... 339308102/

Cheers!

seriously, you get told these things, do a quick search and can't find anything you sort of just believe the story.

[rubberman]

Cheers!

seriously, you get told these things, do a quick search and can't find anything you sort of just believe the story.

It is one of the many advantages of sites like this that people who are interested to find 'that little bit more' than is generally around, can get the opinions of others and useful links to check up on some of the stories that float around.

[monotonehell]

Interesting observation.
"Yes, the Coalition won the election. Labor's NBN won it too, with an even larger margin..."
FTTP 55.6% v FTTN 39.9%
http://i.imgur.com/U2lLBcO.png

The groundswell arising after this election on the NBN is an interesting phenomenon. Many people are starting to wake up to the fact that they have been lied to.

* Cheaper, by 10% or $4 billion, but not if you take everything into account. In fact the opposite: fully costed, an FTTN then FTTP is more expensive.
* Sooner, by one year, after creating the problem by doing nothing for more than a decade.
* More Affordable, isn't possible when the Government don't set the retail prices. Even if they knock 33% off the wholesale price ($16 vs $24), why would any ISP pass-on the whole saving, not just follow the banks' example and pocket it?

What Turnbull didn't say:
What will the NBN cost the taxpayer? It isn't any number you've been told.
* $12.5 billion in interest payments to 2033, mainly from 2018, until the loan is paid off.
* Then, over the next 7 years to 2040, the NBN returns $40-$45 billion. The taxpayer is better off by $30 billion at least.
* NBN Co is already 12-18 months ahead of financial forecasts. Keep up these early wins and it's like a house mortgage, small payments early on result in massive gains later. Because paying off the loans are NBN Co's highest cost, just like a house.

How much PROFIT will "NBN Lite" generate? NONE, it makes a $10 billion loss over 20 years.
* Turnbull acknowledges it costs more to operate and maintain the Copper/VDSL network, but artfully hides just how this destroys the business.
* If NBN Lite charges $16 wholesale per line, they can just cover interest and maintenance and be "cashflow positive", but they can't pay-off the loans or cover depreciation.
* In 20 years "NBN Lite" will not only cost the taxpayer $40 billion in interest, they will still have to payback the $30 billion in loans.
* Turnbull's "NBN Lite" plan will cost the taxpayer $70 billion by 2040, not leave them $30 billion better off. There is a $100 billion difference, but not the way Turnbull calls it.

One of the central criticisms of the current NBN by Turnbull is the "cost". It's NOT the cost to taxpayers he discusses, but the Budget of NBN Co, they're very different to begin with. Taxpayers don't have to meet ANY of the NBN expenses, only pay the interest on the loans to fund the business.

The ALP did not create the NBN Co Corporate Plan. NBN Co is a business staffed with subject-area experts. They will be held accountable to their management and ultimately the NBN Co Board, for meeting their forecasts. These are industry professionals, experts in their field, doing their best work. They don't just make up numbers or parrot what their ALP overlords dictate to them. The Labor government set their maximum equity contribution, gave the design rules and stood back.

NBN Co has anticipated real risks to the project. They are well documented and included in the current Corporate Plan. They even have a 10% contingency set aside, as is good industry practice.

"NBN Lite" costs the same, or 10% more, than the current plan. Why would anyone think an inferior service, that is designed to be thrown away, for the same price would be a good idea?

Summary
"NBN Lite" is the OPPOSITE of how it's been portrayed in the media: giving us better Broadband but for less.
* It's an inferior service that will cost the same, or more, to build and operate.
* It will cost taxpayers $70 billion or more by 2040, NOT make them $30 billion or more by then.
* Fibre NBN doesn't just make money, it matches need and service, making everyone happy.
* Tiered pricing reduces costs to the majority, while allowing those who put a high monetary value on their time, to swap money for time. That's real consumer choice.
* The Fibre NBN profits all come from the top 25% of users, the rest of us get a free-ride.

The above quotes are from the following article, which I recommend you read. Especially the parts about cost to the taxpayer, the four billion dollars in wastage costs of FTTN, and how Telstra are saying that VDSL is not going to work for FTTN. Everything you think you know about it is probably wrong because Labor failed to communicate the truth of the matter to the public and the Libs managed to get away with outright fabrications.
http://stevej-on-nbn.blogspot.com.au/20 ... te-or.html

[claybro]

Would it be too much to ask that the "build it at any cost" brigade actually wait until the current NBNCO is properly audited and a correct comparison of the business case of each is able to be accurately judged? Or do we blindly believe the former governments figures on the total cost and reach and timeframe of the whole project. The mere mention of an audit from the then opposition sent the NBNCO into a meltdown. It's not that the proposal wasn't sold properly prior to the election,.. everyone wants lightning fast internet.. its just that the public in general had stopped believing the former government costing on anything, and voted accordingly.

[monotonehell]

Would it be too much to ask that the "build it at any cost" brigade actually wait until the current NBNCO is properly audited and a correct comparison of the business case of each is able to be accurately judged? Or do we blindly believe the former governments figures on the total cost and reach and timeframe of the whole project. The mere mention of an audit from the then opposition sent the NBNCO into a meltdown. It's not that the proposal wasn't sold properly prior to the election,.. everyone wants lightning fast internet.. its just that the public in general had stopped believing the former government costing on anything, and voted accordingly.

Did that actually happen? I remember the claims, but didn't see any evidence to back them up at the time.

An audit would be interesting. Not sure how to ensure that it doesn't turn into a witch hunt though.

[claybro]

Did that actually happen? I remember the claims, but didn't see any evidence to back them up at the time.

An audit would be interesting. Not sure how to ensure that it doesn't turn into a witch hunt though.

A very public stoush between Turnbull and the NBNCO board over the threat of a forensic audit if the coalition won the election. It is well documented.
On the second point, I absolutely agree. No point them having an audit that is not independent or it will be seen purely as a political exercise. One wonders though, what the NBNCO board has to fear from a proper audit.

[monotonehell]

Did that actually happen? I remember the claims, but didn't see any evidence to back them up at the time.

An audit would be interesting. Not sure how to ensure that it doesn't turn into a witch hunt though.

A very public stoush between Turnbull and the NBNCO board over the threat of a forensic audit if the coalition won the election. It is well documented...

Again I still can't google any actual stoush here. All I can find is the Lib's election campaign making claims, NBNco rejecting them and then the Lib's claiming more things without any evidence. Can you point me to some of this documentation?

And another review of what I have been saying all along. This time regarding the state of the copper network...
http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articl ... 851924.htm

[Amused]

It's not that the proposal wasn't sold properly prior to the election,.. everyone wants lightning fast internet.. its just that the public in general had stopped believing the former government costing on anything, and voted accordingly.

With the utmost of respect, I disagree with this. It was not a referendum on NBN v NBN lite because if it was, then Labor would have won based on just about every NBN poll ever, even if Labor's figures were completely inaccurate. Many people like myself, who still firmly believe we need FTTP voted Liberal because there were many other aspects to running a country that we felt Labor was starting to do poorly, would do poorly, or simply that Liberal would do better.
It would have been silly to make this all about the NBN when it is just but a single aspect to what is needed to encourage economic stability, confidence and growth.

[claybro]

Again I still can't google any actual stoush here. All I can find is the Lib's election campaign making claims, NBNco rejecting them and then the Lib's claiming more things without any evidence. Can you point me to some of this documentation?

type in Tunbull v Mckenna.