SA Now In Recession: ANZ Bank

[rev]

South Australia in recession: bank

By Michael Owen

August 14, 2007 12:54pm

* ANZ report says SA in recession
* Report says people moving from SA to other states
* Opposition Leader says government ignoring industries

SOUTH Australia's economy has gone into recession, a new economic report published today by the ANZ bank says.

The latest biannual ANZ Australian Property Outlook Report says the state is experiencing "weakening economic activity... employment has stalled and economic growth has weakened sharply".

ANZ economists advise: "The state is now in technical recession following two consecutive quarters of economic growth".

The report also warns SA is still losing significant population numbers to other states and "the trend is rising sharply".

Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith accused Premier Mike Rann and Treasurer Kevin Foley of relying on a "coming mining boom while they have taken their eye off other industries".

"It's almost impossible that in a time of record low unemployment across Australia that this state finds itself in an economic recession," Mr Hamilton-Smith said.
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Im surprised nobody picked this one up.

[crawf]

Theres already discussion about this in the Victoria Square thread (dunno why the article was posted there )

Foley knocks recession claims
Article from: The Advertiser
MICHAEL OWEN, POLITICAL REPORTER

August 15, 2007 02:15am

TREASURER Kevin Foley has become embroiled in a war of words with ANZ Bank economists over claims in a report that South Australia has gone into recession.

Mr Foley yesterday said the bank should be "embarrassed" and some of its economists "need to go back to Economics 101".

The lead author of the report, Melbourne-based ANZ head of financial system analysis Paul Braddock, said it was Mr Foley who needed to go back to economics school.

He said the Economics@ANZ team stood by the report and the economic measure used to reach its conclusion.

"The measure we used is a broader measure than which Mr Foley is using and therefore, because it is broader, it is a better and more credible measure," Mr Braddock said.

The latest biannual ANZ Australian Property Outlook Report said the state was experiencing "weakening economic activity . . . employment has stalled and economic growth has weakened sharply".

ANZ economists advised: "The state is now in technical recession following two consecutive quarters of negative growth."

The report also warned that SA was still losing significant population numbers to other states and "the trend is rising sharply".

But Mr Foley pointed to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, which he said showed in the last four quarters to March that SA had positive domestic growth of 3.3 per cent.

`Credible ABS data points to anything but a recession," he said.

Mr Foley said he had spoken to ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake, who had not said the report was wrong but would not have used the same terminology.

Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith accused the Government of relying on a "coming mining boom while they have taken their eye off other industries".

[ynotsfables]

I can't help but think, regardless of how stupid this may sound. That there's an anti South Australian conspiracy out there, that no other state experiences. For example you always hear the clich'e "Adelaide is so small" .You don't hear people say that of Hobart or Darwin. So why do we have such stigmas attatched to us. Why do people, businesses, governments, interstate visitors try and knock us down, especially now that we are starting to gain confidence with our economy, mining & building booms. We need encouragement and inspiration not an opposition leader who rubbishes everything the goverment doe's just because he wants to get in power. As for the ANZ bank making a statement that SA is in recession i personally find that hard to believe considering all the positive news i've been hearing lately. Whats going on?

[Norman]

I can't help but think, regardless of how stupid this may sound. That there's an anti South Australian conspiracy out there, that no other state experiences. For example you always hear the clich'e "Adelaide is so small" .You don't hear people say that of Hobart or Darwin. So why do we have such stigmas attatched to us. Why do people, businesses, governments, interstate visitors try and knock us down, especially now that we are starting to gain confidence with our economy, mining & building booms. We need encouragement and inspiration not an opposition leader who rubbishes everything the goverment doe's just because he wants to get in power. As for the ANZ bank making a statement that SA is in recession i personally find that hard to believe considering all the positive news i've been hearing lately. Whats going on?

No, you're right. But then again maybe Hobart and Darwin are too small to notice for them...

[rev]

In reply to ynotsfables,
SA and Adelaide deserve alot of the crap they cop, and interstaters are right to criticise us. Building boom, mining boom to come supposedly(ill believe it when it happens), the slight change in population figures, all great things for sure.
But think about it this way. The Rundle Convergence, was it necessary to compare it to Times Square? The list goes on with such stupid small town comparissons. Why cant we just do something and let it be unique for Adelaide without comparing it to the rest of the world.
Are we a major capital city or a rural outback town? A quick glance over the negativity created by a vocal minority over the tram line extension, would give anyone the impression Adelaide was anything BUT a major capital city.
If you want to look for a conspiracy of people trying to keep us down, look right here in Adelaide it self.

It is not the rest of Australia keeping SA and Adelaide down, it is South Australians them selfs. Why are other cities in Australia and around the world able to get things done without the nagging of minority nimby groups who seem to hold the most political sway? Why is Perth able to grow and develop as it has, with proposals for inspiring(to use one word) new stadiums, why is Hong Kong able to stage a city wide light show nightly, why is Brisbane able to build a tunnel, yet Adelaide cant even build a few underpasses or upgrade a grand stand at Vic Park, without it seeming like the world is coming to an end?
We have that tool Hamilton Smith whining constantly about traffic delays and other nonsense. God help him if he moved to Sydney and complained. Theyd express courier his ass back to Adelaide. Yet Adelaide puts up with these sub-standard "leaders".

[Al]

I don't get it... how does the ANZ reconcile their point of view with the article below (posted by Will on another thread)? I don't know about the facts and figures but just looking around town and seeing all the activity, I'm surprised we're in a recession. Personally, I think some economists are full of shit and having lost a bit of money in trusting "professional economists" to invest my money for me I think the ANZ needs to look beyond their office windows.

SA closing the gap on other states
Article from: The Advertiser
KIM WHEATLEY, CHIEF REPORTER

August 08, 2007 02:15am


SOUTH Australia is punching above its weight socially and economically - officially shrugging off the malaise of the 1990s, new figures show.
In a range of data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday, SA is pegging back the gap on the other states amid the upcoming defence and mining boom.
One of the most exciting statistics for demographers in the Australian Social Trends 2007 report relates to babies.
The state is well above the national average for fertility rates. Over the past five years, SA's fertility rate increased almost 7 per cent, compared with 4.5 per cent nationally.
"Which is really interesting because SA's fertility has generally been lower than other states . . . it's really quite a significant change," demographer Professor Graham Hugo said.
On top of that, the number of migrants coming to the state has almost doubled to 6.6 per cent in the past decade to 11,900 people last financial year.
Professor Hugo predicts that on current trends SA will reach its two million population target by about 2030, not 2050.
While wages in SA remain among the lowest in the nation, the levels appear to be consistent with SA's lower housing and grocery costs.
The state's unemployment rate kept pace with national figures, dropping from 9 per cent a decade ago to 5 per cent.
The workforce participation rate remained unchanged but dropped in most other states.
In terms of upskilling the state's workforce, the number of people gaining post school qualifications jumped by 14 per cent to 56 per cent.
"It really shows that there has been some economic and demographic progress - certainly demographically there has been a closing of the gap between SA and the rest of Australia - that's very clearly indicated there," Professor Hugo said.
Population trends expert Bernard Salt believes SA had been lagging in a demographic and psychological malaise which had its origins in the State Bank collapse, but the defence and mining boom have brought massive change.
"You've had a couple of events that have catapulted SA forward at a faster rate than other states for the first time," he said.
"There's just suddenly an air of confidence, fewer people are leaving, some people are coming back, people are having babies, not wanting to be in Melbourne, Sydney or London."

[omada]

yeah its interesting looking at the differing opinions, quoting the article above detailing the response by Kev Foley, ANZ's response:

"The measure we used is a broader measure than which Mr Foley is using and therefore, because it is broader, it is a better and more credible measure," Mr Braddock said.

"A broader measure", what exactly would that be? Oh and it must be better! Very ambigious ANZ, I don't really know who to believe here!

[jimmy_2486]

Have to agree with Rev there.

We cop shit because our lifestyle is different to other major capital cities in Australia (and possibly the world).

Last time I was in Sydney every time I told the cab driver where I was from, every time, they would give me shit that I was from Adelaide.

You talk to any random person on the street in Adelaide and a large percentage will tell you that they wouldn't move to Melbourne, or Sydney, or Brisbane etc cos its too busy and too big.

Ben folds five even made a song about Adelaide saying how quiet and peaceful we are (Ben Folds Five - Adelaide).

Reason why?? We have the largest percentage of elderly people in the country who want Adelaide to stay small so they can enjoy their relaxed lifestyle. We are not a city used to change either because of this and hopefully this trend will not pass down generations.

It hasn't got anything to do with our population why we have crap infrastructure, economy etc, its our attitudes towards moving towards something big. Perth is not that much bigger and got a boom with a lesser population than what we have now. If we planned to enlarge our economy, expand our road/PT infrastructures, push for high density living, then there will be an outcry because we will lose our easy going lifestyle and we will become what (the majority of us) we hate, which is becoming like the major eastern cities. This outcry would probably scare polititions into doing anything for this state as they would risk losing votes.

The attitudes of the majority of eastern state people are purely business, hence why they get all the business HQ's etc. We on the other hand would rather live comfortably.

So with that in mind, where do you think major Hq's will be set up, time and time again???

When I hear comments like, "I don't want to live a big city life, I want my backyard" or "I couldn't live in a big city, I would hate the traffic" It confirms to me why we get the short end of the stick with everything, and confuses me to how we want to have the luxury's of a big city (awesome PT, freeways, big buildings, etc) but don't want the lifestyles that a big city offers?? It makes Adelaide seem like a big retirement village when I hear crap like that.

These are my thoughts anyway, I love Adelaide, but me being under 30 along with the majority of people on this forum. I would love to have people change their attitudes and not say things like "I love Adelaide cos it is small". I would like to see Adelaide become something big as I would like to someday lead into a highly successful career and not to have to move interstate because we are insignificant.

[Will]

I think the refusal by ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake to endorse this report confirms that the report is incorrect and plain wrong.

In addition I read a comment regarding a possible hypothesis to explain this report. Could it be, that big business (like the ANZ) is playing along with the Howard government's attempts to show that the Labor states cannot be trusted with the economy. It is possible, because big business is obviously hoping for a Liberal victory, so that a new round of Workchoices is introduced, which would result in larger profits and larger executive bonuses.

[bmw boy]

If theyre not good enough to be an anylist on the news dont trust them!

If Wespects cheif economist Bill Evans said it... then it would be a different story lol

[crawf]

This state and city does not deserve the crap it gets, especially when it comes from people interstate who have never stepped foot in the place!

Maybe Adelaide was a popular city years ago?, but like most things in this country it fell for the tall poppy syndrome (Sydney is now getting a taste of it). The State Bank Collapse has also played a major part of SA's downfall and our old disgraceful infrastructure (old airport, bus terminal, princes highway etc...)

Regardless of that ANZ report, things are improving in this state. There was article last week on the current exploration boom that SA is going to go from 4 mines (2000) to 40 mines by 2020 [huge increase], defence projects such as the $8bn Air warfare Contract and population growth has improved quite alot compared to a few years ago.

But there is still alot of room for improvement, but this state is on the right track (the latest abs report shows that)

[Will]

This state and city does not deserve the crap it gets, especially when it comes from people interstate who have never stepped foot in the place!

Maybe Adelaide was a popular city years ago?, but like most things in this country it fell for the tall poppy syndrome (Sydney is now getting a taste of it). The State Bank Collapse has also played a major part of SA's downfall and our old disgraceful infrastructure (old airport, bus terminal, princes highway etc...)

Regardless of that ANZ report, things are improving in this state. There was article last week on the current exploration boom that SA is going to go from 4 mines (2000) to 40 mines by 2020 [huge increase], defence projects such as the $8bn Air warfare Contract and population growth has improved quite alot compared to a few years ago.

But there is still alot of room for improvement, but this state is on the right track (the latest abs report shows that)

Adelaide has had a negative reputation since the 1950s.

I was having a read of a book known as 'The Bannon Decade', which investigates life in SA during the 1980s. (before the State Bank collapse). Even back then, Adelaide and SA were seen as backwards, slow and boring by the rest of Australia. In addition, we had the same problems we have now, such as lower population growth as compared to the rest of Australia, and net losses in interstate migration.

But that is now in the past, and all the latest economic figures and forecasts (except the ANZ one!) show that SA is improving, and that the future is bright.

[jimmy_2486]

This state and city does not deserve the crap it gets, especially when it comes from people interstate who have never stepped foot in the place!

Lol crawf, I admire your concern about what people think of SA, but I don't think getting on TV and telling 20 million people to stop paying out SA will work!! hhehehe.

A recession purely states that a boom is starting to ease off, but doesn't mean that it wont fire up again. These are all short term conclusions and nothing to be terribly worried about. These figures I believe, but they are only short term.

I saw somewhere that by 2010 (think it was a marketing campaign) that the cities population is expected to double which will be really good for Adelaide's CBD. But it wouldn't surprise me if it did seeing all these new apartment buildings that are popping up. This will mean more shops, malls, u name it.

Also this should fire off a chain reaction of positive attitudes towards high density living, which might flow into the inner suburbs.....Wouldn't that be a sight to see!!! Hopefully it all gets marketed accordingly. If this happens the inner metro will be full of high density dwellers with good attitudes and NIMBY free, and we shall see something happen to this state that will change what others will think of it.

[ynotsfables]

If what the ANZ are suggesting that our so called boom is slowing or easing off, and thats what they consider our recession to be . Well i think that is a load of inerstate biased bullshit that is aimed purely to demoralise our state. Our boom has barely begun, so how the hell is that possible. Is this sabotage.

[Ho Really]

Adelaide and SA get criticised but it also gets accolades from interstaters and overseas visitors. Many South Australians go interstate and overseas to earn their living, but if they had their choice of where to live they'd come back. Even those not born and bred here if given a chance to work and live here they would do so. Those that most of you call the NIMBY minority don't run the State. They don't influence governments or elections, but they do have a right to voice their opinions, and their opinion is worth listening to if we can make improvements. SA and Adelaide don't need underpasses when a freeway would be the solution, a new stadium costing hundreds of millions when we already have one that just needs good public transport, a grandstand upgrade in Vic Park when there are only a handful of races per year, a tram extension when there's no long term light rail plan, think about it? That's the reason many have opinions and concerns. I don't see the people of SA and Adelaide being the ones holding us back, rather our unfortunate past (last 30 years) when we had uninspiring leaders and a bad economy.

Cheers

Note: The older generation now trying to enjoy retirement were the ones that made this state, they are not the ones currently trying to undermine it.