The SA Politics Thread

[[Shuz]]

If there's another Newspoll / Guardian Essential poll done in late January that replicates the result, if not better - he'll have to change tack. I don't think even he anticipated doing this well (in the lower house context anyway).

Some of the candidates are actually pretty decent looking at their profiles and backgrounds. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he snares either a current sitting Labor or Liberal member onto his side.

[Nort]

Xenophon is both desperate for power and terrified of being held accountable for it.

[[Shuz]]

More "political payback" as Jay snubs "Liberal leaders' debate"
Tom Richardson

Jay Weatherill has stepped up Labor’s bid to paint itself as the only non-conservative contender at the March election – and escalated the party’s spat with the state’s business lobby – by snubbing a leaders’ debate to be hosted by the Property Council.

The Property Council has been spruiking its leaders’ lunch – a debate to take place a day before writs for the March election are issued on February 17 – with Weatherill listed as “invited”.

The Premier said today that he would not attend, in a media statement that described the event as a “Liberal Leadership showdown” representing “a contest for conservative hearts and minds”.

The statement derisively refers to “prominent SA Liberals Steven Marshall and Nick Xenophon battling it out at a Liberal Leaders’ debate”, with Weatherill noting that “with the State Liberals in such disarray, the debate will give SA business leaders the opportunity to consider former Liberal Nick Xenophon as the alternative Liberal Party leader in SA”.

Marshall today reacted angrily to the snub, telling InDaily in a statement: “What a pathetic comment from a man who has completely abandoned the South Australian business sector.”

“After nailing his anti-business colours to the mast through his attempts to introduce massive new taxes, Jay Weatherill is now running away from a genuine and important debate,” Marshall said.

Xenophon said Weatherill’s refusal to attend was “an extraordinary development” that “shows cowardice on the part of the Premier to face up to a very important sector that drives growth and jobs in the state”.

“To characterise this as a contest between two Liberals is deeply offensive, given my voting record in the Senate was about even between Liberal and Labor on key legislation,” he said.

But the move appears part of a concerted strategy – detailed to InDaily by ALP insiders in recent days – to position Labor as the non-conservative alternative to the Liberals and SA Best during the election campaign.

It’s a strategy that has been evident in recent pronouncements by the Premier, including his oft-repeated refrain that Labor will boast the highest number of seats in the lower house after polling day, a bid to paint the political Left as a settled proposition that can “deliver a strong and stable and secure government for the future”, whereas “if you vote orange or blue or any of the other shades of the rainbow, you don’t know what you’re going to get”.

Weatherill, who was not available to speak to InDaily today, told FIVEaa last week that the election had “turned into a bit of a race between us and Nick [Xenophon, because] the Libs look like they’ve given up”.

“They’re barely on the scene at the moment, so it’s very much coming down to a Labor/Xenophon battle,” he said.

“What we know about Nick is he’s a former Lib… he was a member of the Liberal Party, he’s got about seven people on his ticket or about to be on his ticket that were former members of the Liberal Party [so] this is what we’re facing, basically another form of the Liberal Party in the Xenophon team.”

It’s a theme he hammered again today, gleefully scuttling the Property Council event – just days after the organisation’s executive director Daniel Gannon complained publicly that a promised $250,000 grant to help lure companies to headquarter in Adelaide had been axed, as payback, he claimed, for the council’s lobbying against the dumped state bank tax.

Another prominent critic of the tax, Business SA, also lost $100,000 that was earmarked for trade missions.

Weatherill said the Property Council had advertised the event before confirming his attendance, with his office saying he “will decline the offer to participate”.

His office would not reveal his alternate plans for the day, saying they were “to be revealed”, but insisted Weatherill would participate in “at least three” leaders’ debates during the campaign, including at the SA Press Club on February 2.

“I will participate in several other leaders’ debates – just not this one,” Weatherill said in a statement.

“This debate will determine once and for all, whose tie is the brighter shade of blue. [It] will determine the true Liberal Party leader – the embattled Steven Marshall, or Nick Xenophon.”

Gannon – who was Marshall’s chief media adviser until after the last election – has been targeted by Labor in recent days, with Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis singling him out on Twitter as a Labor critic.

That followed Gannon failing to share the Weatherill’s Violet Crumble-fuelled jubilation after the Government helped bankroll Robern Menz’s chocolate coup with a $750,000 jobs fund grant and a $900,000 Investment Attraction Agency – the week after it pulled its grant for the Property Council.

Gannon told InDaily in a statement the leaders’ debate was held for “an audience of business leaders and industry captains”.

“They aren’t interested in politics, they’re interested in policies,” he said.

“While it’s disappointing that the Premier has chosen to not participate in the event, we respect his decision to do so. However, any suggestion that this organisation or this sector is behaving in a partisan manner is completely fictitious.”

Gannon said “despite some recent differences in policy opinion, the Property Council and Government have partnered on many occasions this past four years to deliver good outcomes in planning, sustainability, red tape, tax, density, and other areas”.

“It’s disappointing that the Government now seems to be dishing out even more ‘political payback’ at a time when the business sector and community is seeking solutions to important policies that target job creation,” he said.

“A discussion with Steven Marshall and Nick Xenophon is an important part of the story of the upcoming election campaign, and while we would have preferred the Premier’s involvement, the property sector is keen to better understand the alternative policies from the state’s alternative leaders.”

Gannon’s Twitter timeline suggests a bipartisan approach to policy debate. He recently took Liberal MLC Andrew McLachlan to task for an Advertiser column which derided recent “banal” city architectural projects, including at Adelaide University and the Convention Centre, which Gannon called “a disappointing contribution from a policy-maker”.

[mshagg]

There's some irony in business lobby groups who run campaigns opposing taxes then complaining when they miss a government handout lol.

Also seems a bit rich to appoint Marshall's former chief spin doctor and then complain about suggestions of partisanship.

[Nathan]

Not to mention putting Weatherill on the advertising for the debate, before actually confirming that he'll attend. (No, a tiny 'invited' note does not excuse that).

[Ben]

Does anyone know when they will start to announce their election "promises". Will it be prior to the writs in Feb or after. I was expecting to hear more by now.

[[Shuz]]

I'm very surprised too, given how tight the race is between the three parties. You'd think they'd be throwing absolutely everything they can out there to swing votes in their respective favours.

I cannot believe that the Liberals are once again playing the small target strategy! Have they not learnt anything after 16 years in opposition? The vast majority of policies they have announced so far have been really nothing more than administrative tweaks to legislation and won't actually have any real difference to people's lives.

As for Labor - I haven't noticed any policies announced as such from them, but I think they will be banking on their track record - which, really is pretty good if you think about the last four years in terms of 'making a difference to people's lives'. Look at the progress on the north south motorway, energy security has been resolved, tram network expansion, the city is more livelier than ever. Sure there's been a few scandals like TAFE and Oakden and DECD (which should have materialized bigger than they were - if it was any other state, you'd have the Premier's head) but they all seemed to turn out to be nothing more than a wobble than a downright free-fall in terms of voting intentions and satisfaction with the government.

An exciting election for sure! I can't wait. I have a feeling it will be a Labor / NXT minority government; but with all parties having a relatively even number of seats (something like 17-16-14) n a house of 47 seats and and you need 24 to govern. I think quite possible Nick will end up being Premier if he gets at least 15 seats (though quite a few strings will have to be pulled for this to happen - and I mean more than just a visit to Port Pirie and some pizza).

Post-election, I do see the Liberals capitulating and breaking out into internal war, to the degree of splitting into two. The prospect of 20 years in opposition is bound to open up sore wounds of the past as they realize that Marshall is nothing more than a bandaid over a decapitated corpse.

[Goodsy]

Post-election, I do see the Liberals capitulating and breaking out into internal war, to the degree of splitting into two. The prospect of 20 years in opposition is bound to open up sore wounds of the past as they realize that Marshall is nothing more than a bandaid over a decapitated corpse.

Marshall has said he's going to quit politics if Liberals lose

[[Shuz]]

Dunstan will be one of the hot seats to watch. It's fairly marginal seat 53/47 2PP at last election, with a swing of 1.7% to Labor. If Labor (or NXT) can narrow this down even further on election day but Marshall still holds onto the seat, he might want to reconsider his position if the Liberals are unable to form a government (majority, or minority coalition). Because if he resigns, forcing a by-election, the Liberals are in even more trouble as incumbents tend to attract about a 3% higher than usual primary vote; so a new candidate standing in for the Liberals would then theoretically be starting from behind on a 2PP vote, making it easily one for them to lose.

Bets are on Labor announces a tramline to Norwood within 4 years to capture those swing voters in Dunstan.

[Ben]

Post-election, I do see the Liberals capitulating and breaking out into internal war, to the degree of splitting into two. The prospect of 20 years in opposition is bound to open up sore wounds of the past as they realize that Marshall is nothing more than a bandaid over a decapitated corpse.

Marshall has said he's going to quit politics if Liberals lose

Unfortunately 4 years too late.

[rev]

I'm very surprised too, given how tight the race is between the three parties. You'd think they'd be throwing absolutely everything they can out there to swing votes in their respective favours.

I cannot believe that the Liberals are once again playing the small target strategy! Have they not learnt anything after 16 years in opposition? The vast majority of policies they have announced so far have been really nothing more than administrative tweaks to legislation and won't actually have any real difference to people's lives.

As for Labor - I haven't noticed any policies announced as such from them, but I think they will be banking on their track record - which, really is pretty good if you think about the last four years in terms of 'making a difference to people's lives'. Look at the progress on the north south motorway, energy security has been resolved, tram network expansion, the city is more livelier than ever. Sure there's been a few scandals like TAFE and Oakden and DECD (which should have materialized bigger than they were - if it was any other state, you'd have the Premier's head) but they all seemed to turn out to be nothing more than a wobble than a downright free-fall in terms of voting intentions and satisfaction with the government.

An exciting election for sure! I can't wait. I have a feeling it will be a Labor / NXT minority government; but with all parties having a relatively even number of seats (something like 17-16-14) n a house of 47 seats and and you need 24 to govern. I think quite possible Nick will end up being Premier if he gets at least 15 seats (though quite a few strings will have to be pulled for this to happen - and I mean more than just a visit to Port Pirie and some pizza).

Post-election, I do see the Liberals capitulating and breaking out into internal war, to the degree of splitting into two. The prospect of 20 years in opposition is bound to open up sore wounds of the past as they realize that Marshall is nothing more than a bandaid over a decapitated corpse.

Nobody is coming out making full blown election promises just yet because an election hasn't been called.
People don't want to hear election politics for the next four months.

Xenophon wont be premier in a coalition government with Labor, unless his party, SA Best(Not NXT, get with the program), wins more seats. No way Labor will give up the leadership to a junior partner, get real.

[SRW]

Fuck these guys. Whether or not there’s actually any substantive difference in the programme, the fact that they’re dog whistling to homophobes tells you all you need to know about the Liberals.

[Goodsy]

Fuck these guys. Whether or not there’s actually any substantive difference in the programme, the fact that they’re dog whistling to homophobes tells you all you need to know about the Liberals.

The SSM vote showed them the silent majority doesnt actually exist, just shows how out of touch they actually are

[mshagg]

if it was any other state, you'd have the Premier's head) but they all seemed to turn out to be nothing more than a wobble than a downright free-fall in terms of voting intentions and satisfaction with the government.

Were it any other state, you might have an opposition which is capable of landing a blow. That Turnbull and Frydenberg got more mileage out of our power grid event than Marshall says volumes about the state opposition's political capabilities. The local paper carpet bombs the government day in - day out and even with weakened defences Marshall cant get a shot off. This is reinforced when looking at their announced policies... banning highrise in the eastern suburbs, ramping up the war on drugs and repurposing safe schools. In the meantime the population is getting accustomed to government building them hospitals, roads, tunnels, rail lines etc etc. I mean how tone deaf are the opposition?

An exciting election for sure! I can't wait. I have a feeling it will be a Labor / NXT minority government; but with all parties having a relatively even number of seats (something like 17-16-14) n a house of 47 seats and and you need 24 to govern. I think quite possible Nick will end up being Premier if he gets at least 15 seats (though quite a few strings will have to be pulled for this to happen - and I mean more than just a visit to Port Pirie and some pizza).

For someone who ostensibly returned to SA to stick it to the government, he's doing a hell of a job making the opposition's harder given the majority of SA Best focus seems to be in blue seats. Labor strategy of painting Nick X as liberal-lite pretty much writes itself and splitting the libs vote seems to have put Jay squarely back in the game.

[[Shuz]]

Very good post mshagg. Marshall's capabilities of landing a political blow is about as effective as getting hit with wet lettuce.