SA Now In Recession: ANZ Bank

[Ho Really]

In addition I read a comment regarding a possible hypothesis to explain this report. Could it be, that big business (like the ANZ) is playing along with the Howard government's attempts to show that the Labor states cannot be trusted with the economy. It is possible, because big business is obviously hoping for a Liberal victory, so that a new round of Workchoices is introduced, which would result in larger profits and larger executive bonuses.

Can you quote this comment?

Cheers

[Ho Really]

"A broader measure"

The report is obviously taking into consideration parts of our economy which will face downturns, such as our manufacturing industry. The economist in question may have cause to be right. We can only hope that the emerging mining boom can alleviate this.

Cheers

[Will]

In addition I read a comment regarding a possible hypothesis to explain this report. Could it be, that big business (like the ANZ) is playing along with the Howard government's attempts to show that the Labor states cannot be trusted with the economy. It is possible, because big business is obviously hoping for a Liberal victory, so that a new round of Workchoices is introduced, which would result in larger profits and larger executive bonuses.

Can you quote this comment?

Cheers

What do you mean?

[Ho Really]

What do you mean?

Who made that comment and can you quote it?

Cheers

[Will]

What do you mean?

Who made that comment and can you quote it?

Cheers

The second round of Workchoices comment was made by Nick Minchin.

The bit about the Howard government targetting the state Labor governemnts is the tactic that the federal governemnt is going to use as the scare tactic this election, and was widely publicized in the media a few weeks ago.

And those ads supporting workplace 'reform' currently screening on TV are being paid for by big business, so essentially a few people put these things together and made comments similar to the one I made. These comments can be found in the public comments section of the article about the recession on the Advertiser website. However, essentially these comments are made by members of the public.

[Ho Really]

The bit about the Howard government targetting the state Labor governemnts is the tactic that the federal governemnt is going to use as the scare tactic this election, and was widely publicized in the media a few weeks ago.

Those ads are partly based on fact. The state governments owe a lot to the Federal government for their well being. Since the introduction of the GST they are swimming in money. With the Federal government debt free, the onus is on them to keep their houses in order. From an historical perspective State Labor governments have been the ones who have failed when running economies and going into debt.

Personally, before pointing the finger at the states for the creeping interest rates, I would blame several other factors, the main ones being the booming economy, the rising costs of property and our spiralling personal debt.

And those ads supporting workplace 'reform' currently screening on TV are being paid for by big business,

The Federal Liberal party and business are entitled to do this, just like the Labor party and Unions. The important matter is that they are factual and not false or misleading.

so essentially a few people put these things together and made comments similar to the one I made.

As I don't read the Advertiser everyday I don't know what people write, but I would like to know who these people are and their credentials when it comes to such hypotheses. I can only assume it's a small group of regular Labor sympathisers.

Will, you are entitled to your opinion, of course, but do you really believe a bank such as the ANZ is in the business of releasing reports that have no substance? The report does not imply any Labor government is at fault or that it supports an incumbent Federal Liberal government.

These comments can be found in the public comments section of the article about the recession on the Advertiser website. However, essentially these comments are made by members of the public.

You'll also see other comments that don't dismiss it.

Cheers

[Will]

^^

So do you think the state is in recession?

Furthermore the comments supporting the ANZ report from members of the public could also be attributed to Liberal sympathisers.

[SRW]

Those ads are partly based on fact. The state governments owe a lot to the Federal government for their well being. Since the introduction of the GST they are swimming in money. With the Federal government debt free, the onus is on them to keep their houses in order. From an historical perspective State Labor governments have been the ones who have failed when running economies and going into debt.

This is not really accurate. We have in our federation a situation called vertical fiscal imbalance, wherein the Commonwealth has progressively usurped or undermined the appropriation capabilities of the states (especially since the mid-20th Century), leaving it with far more revenue than its expenditure responsibilities, and the states far less. So while it is true to say the lot of the states has improved since the introduction of the GST, this is because they were at a low base prior to it. What the GST did was return a proportion of independent (ie, un-tied) revenue to the states which they were in the past able to raise themselves (as was intended by the framers of our Constitution). But the states are still overwhelmingly dependent on Commonwealth money, most of which is tied or conditional, and consequently, the well being of the states is largely directly contingent on the generosity of the Commonwealth. This is not to say, of course, that mismanagement, as with the State Bank in our state, is not also important, but I don't think there's any evidence of that among the state Labor governments of today. My point is, basically, that it is not the states who are "swimming in money", but in fact the Commonwealth.

[Al]

Furthermore the comments supporting the ANZ report from members of the public could also be attributed to Liberal sympathisers.

The ANZ does support the liberals more than they support labour (at least in 2004). Link 1. and Link 2.

It's not to say they released this report specifically to bag a Labour state government but it does add another perspective on things. If we're in a recession, then it certainly doesn't seem obvious to me.

[Ho Really]

So do you think the state is in recession?

To be honest with you I am not quite sure, but if I'd to lean one way or the other I would say No, but by just a little. Take a look at what has happened this week in the sharemarket and the price of Uranium. If we are going to hinge most of the state's future prosperity on one resource then we'll have major problems if things like this happen often.

Furthermore the comments supporting the ANZ report from members of the public could also be attributed to Liberal sympathisers.

Quite true, but there was one credentialed person who said (I think on Thursday) politicians (in this case Foley) didn't use the reports and figures appropriately.

Cheers

[Ho Really]

It's not to say they released this report specifically to bag a Labour state government but it does add another perspective on things. If we're in a recession, then it certainly doesn't seem obvious to me.

Maybe the ANZ economist is telling the Rann government to be watchful.

Cheers

[UrbanSG]

We are not in a recession! The fact this ANZ report said 'technical' gives it away. We are either in a recession or we aren't. 'Technical' is like saying maybe but maybe not. The fact those higher up in ANZ wouldn't support the report findings speaks volumes.

I wonder how old many people are on this forum and who write into the Advertiser saying how crap the state is at the moment and we are in a recession. People must have really short memories, if you want a recession try the early 90's, now that was a recession! I remember walking through the city with so many shops closing, tumble weeds a blowing. That was a truely depressing time. The whole country had to go through a recession then due to financial reforms in the 80's, plus a worldwide recession. Those refoms were tough but they have allowed us to have a strong economy now. I see almost no difference between Liberal and Labor, who cares, they are all power hungry money wasters!

The real threat to SA's economy is another world market crash and subsequent recession. This week has been a bit scary but hopefully it will improve and only be a correction. We are bound to have a recession sooner or later, booms can't last for ever. When we are in a recession we will know it, definately not in one, yet.

[Bulldozer]

Yeah I think we all have to remember that analysts always spew bullshit. Their opinions are a dime a dozen.

These are also the people who think that if a company announces profits that are a few percent short of their growth predictions it's the end of the world and the CEO should be sacked... nevermind there was actually a increase in profit made!

That's the point we need to bear in mind - "growth is slowing" doesn't mean recession... it means growth is still occuring. Growth in some areas is being countered by recession in others (garden and landscaping is being absolutely decimated, as is a lot of agriculture) but overall there's more growth than decline.

However I do agree with ANZ when they say Foley needs to go back to Econ 101... you haven't got a surplus if you're borrowing money!

[Ben]

Multi billion dollar development boom

Published: 17 Aug 2007

Premier Mike Rann has released the latest figures on the multi-billion dollar development boom that’s underway in South Australia.

“Figures I’m releasing today show that there are more than $37 billion dollars in major projects either underway or in the pipeline in the State, up from the $34 billion just a few months ago,” Mr Rann said.

“And in the Adelaide CBD alone, there’s has been an all time record $2.4 billion in development proposals since this Government came to office.

“South Australia’s economy has never been in better shape, with unemployment at record lows, record private sector investment and business confidence at all-time highs.

“And we’re experiencing record population growth, with increased numbers of migrants and a higher fertility rate.

“If the current trends continue, South Australia will almost reach its Strategic Plan population target of two million by 2030, nearly 20 years ahead of the original 2050 target.”

Mr Rann, who will be speaking at the Property Council luncheon today, said that urban development and infrastructure are amongst the leaders in this investment surge, contributing almost $13 billion to the total.

“The current buoyant economic conditions in South Australia have been described by John Howard as ‘the best for a generation’,” Mr Rann said.

“With a mining boom in prospect and major defence projects, there is unprecedented demand for housing, commercial property and public infrastructure of all kinds

“Nowhere is the boom more pronounced than in the CBD, where it’s been more than a generation since there have been so many cranes on the sky-line.

“Adelaide is being rejuvenated as a University City, with state-of-the-art modern green buildings a new tram-line breathing new life into the West End.

“And in the suburbs, the incredibly strong housing market is seeing unprecedented demand.

“We’re meeting that demand with the recently announced realignment of the urban growth boundary adding about 2000 hectares of land for urban development.

“And just this week, we announced an extra four parcels of land totalling 200 hectares - creating 2600 allotments in Andrews Farm, Blakeview and Evanston South.

“South Australia is in the best shape it’s been for decades, and we’re locking in the gains with policies that are unashamedly pro-development, pro-business and pro-jobs.”

[ynotsfables]

Absolutely fantastic thats what i was initially lead to believe all along. This seems more factual than the ANZ's so called fabricated recession. Some nerve hey, they must be Liberal sympathisers supporting the campaining for the up coming federal election. I'm not taking political sides here, but fairs fair thats just dirty politics. You just have to see whats going on around the state, thats the evidence.