The SA Politics Thread

[shiftaling]

Sorry for being off-topic with the politics - but does anyone have any info/pictures as to how the pigs have been/will be restored?

[Waewick]

I reckon it's going to be an interesting 2022 for SA politics.

Libs are going to be wiped out (what's left of them) on a State Level and I'd be stunned if Morrison can hold on.

So it's going to be Labor /Labor for the first time in a while.

Do we think that will give us some more political clout?

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

[[Shuz]]

Way off the mark. Both races can go either way. They will be incredibly tight. 2PP polls are misleading as it is reflective of the whole race. Our system doesn't consider the whole race, it comes down to individual seats, and they're a lot closer than 2PP suggests.

Hung parliaments likely at both levels.

[Waewick]

Way off the mark. Both races can go either way. They will be incredibly tight. 2PP polls are misleading as it is reflective of the whole race. Our system doesn't consider the whole race, it comes down to individual seats, and they're a lot closer than 2PP suggests.

Hung parliaments likely at both levels.

Really?

Labor way ahead on 2PP on a national scale.

To be honest my read on state is limited to the hopeless of Lib candidates and the way the Covid response is being handled (and other things like ramping and the Adelaide 500) in the media which seems to have turned the view of Marshall 180

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

[[Shuz]]

I wouldn't trust Malinouskas so readily.

This is the guy who, somehow, back in 2010 thereabouts, as a relative unknown from outside of Parliament, managed to pull off a coup and evict Mike Rann as Premier. This was right off the back of the NSW Labor and Federal Labor backroom boys deals & coups. That's how he got to be where he is today and that's how he will govern. Be careful what you wish for.

Marshall himself has shown himself to be capable and competent. Unfortunately he has been let down by some unruly, badly behaved and underperfoming colleagues. However, I argue that this is more of a continuation of the entrenched party room culture of self-sabotage that seems to have perpetually been inflicted upon the Liberal Party since the Playford era.

Honestly Marshall has done a pretty good job as Premier managing COVID and keeping the economy stable in a difficult time. As long as Scott Morrison stays out of SA and doesn't associate himself with Marshall, the Liberals might be able to get a second term. Their sore spot going into the election will be about the hospital / ambulance funding versus Riverbank Stadium priorities. Labor will attack on this front very hard, as it speaks to the whole electorate rather than just the metropolitan electorates. This could be enough to swing some of those semi rural & middle suburban seats back to Labor.

[Llessur2002]

Honestly Marshall has done a pretty good job as Premier managing COVID and keeping the economy stable in a difficult time.

I'm in no way a Liberal voter, or am I ever likely to be but I tend to agree that Marshall himself has at least appeared more capable than I expected. The caveat here is that the COVID situation is a difficult one to judge him on as he has largely stepped back and let SA Health call the shots on restrictions and public health measures. This has been absolutely the right thing to do and a good leadership call in itself but it also absolves him from responsibility if it goes tits up so to some extent it could be considered an easier route for him.

The economic measures he has taken have been effective - but these are pretty much on par with what most other states and territories have been doing so it's hardly been ground-breaking economic mastery.

Either way I can't think of many other jurisdictions in the world I would have rather have spent the last couple of years in so I'll happily thank him and Spurrier for that in the unlikely event that I meet them at one of their legendary cocktail parties.

The SA Libs as a whole are still a bit of a joke. I've admired Chapman's stance on some of the contentious issues which have been tackled during this term but the KI debacle will probably taint her for a while if it doesn't end her career completely. Lucas hasn't been quite the wet sponge I expected, although that's partially because he's been forced to spend money due to COVID instead of hiding it under the Government mattress. Knoll at least had some vision (even if I didn't agree with a lot of it) so his departure on a technicality was a slight disappointment, whereas Wingard has apparently just been dithering about like a warm turd since he took over the portfolio. My guess at this stage is on a hung parliament with the Libs governing in minority but this one could absolutely go either way.

I'd still like to see Labor enter the race with some vision and not just go for the small target approach, but I don't hold out much hope on that front at either state or federal level

[Waewick]

I expect that Nationally it's going to be climate and trust

The question then comes around what happens in QLD and who knows with Palmer.

I still think Morrison has lost enough small m Liberals and most city dwellers to lose it, rather than Albanese winning it (although it the last TV interview I saw of him he's improved) you get the feeling this is a bit like the US, Biden wins because he isn't Trump.

State level, will be interesting, hung parliament could be a good thing if the right type of politician has the balance.

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

[Waewick]

https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/11/17/ ... -defiance/

I gave to say, two lawyers having cracks at each other is always great reading.

No holding back here.



Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

[Nort]

Way off the mark. Both races can go either way. They will be incredibly tight. 2PP polls are misleading as it is reflective of the whole race. Our system doesn't consider the whole race, it comes down to individual seats, and they're a lot closer than 2PP suggests.

Hung parliaments likely at both levels.

Really?

Labor way ahead on 2PP on a national scale.

They were in 2018 as well.

[[Shuz]]

I think we are witnessing Vicki Chapman's last days as a politician. If she has been found to have mislead Parliament, she has to resign immediately. A by-election can't be held so close to the State Election, and Marshall cannot afford to lose another vote. Its very obvious Marshall is protecting her at all costs, because as someone who is already leading a very precarious minority government, he needs all the votes he can get. This is very similar to Gillard and the whole Peter Slipper / Craig Thomson fracas back in 2012... and look how well that ended for them all.

Labor are going hard at this, and I suspect its because if she goes, they probably have already sweet talked enough of the crossbenchers to force a no confidence motion in Parliament and force an early election.

Interesting days ahead, watch this space.

[rhino]

Labor are going hard at this, and I suspect its because if she goes, they probably have already sweet talked enough of the crossbenchers to force a no confidence motion in Parliament and force an early election.

I don't think they can actually force an early election in SA as we have fixed terms.

What it could mean is that the Government will find it very hard to get anything even slightly contentious through, and may be susceptible to all manner of enquiries into anything that any politician of a different stripe sees fit to ask for.

[[Shuz]]

Our state constitution allows for an early election if a no confidence motion passes both the House and the Assembly.

[Nort]

28A—Early dissolution of House of Assembly
(1) The Governor may dissolve the House of Assembly and issue a writ or writs for a
general election on a date other than that contemplated by section 28 if and only if—
(a) a motion of no confidence in the government is passed in the House of
Assembly; or
(b) a motion of confidence in the government is defeated in the House of
Assembly; or
(c) a Bill of special importance passed by the House of Assembly is rejected by
the Legislative Council; or
(d) the Governor is acting in pursuance of section 41

[Waewick]

I guess Vicki is learning what conservative politicians do when backed into a corner.

So essentially we have a four month caretaker government.


Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

[HiTouch]

I am surprised Steven Marshall has backed her. It just shows how the Liberal Party is just a Coalition of 2 factions. In NSW they're called the wets and the drys. Here they're called the Chapman Faction and everybody else.