SA Economy

[Jaymz]

The CommSec State of the States for September '22 quarter has been released. S.A is ranked 5th overall.

S.A topped the country again for construction work and in a positive sign we ranked 3rd for population growth....

https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/ ... r_2022.pdf

[rev]

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show Adelaide slowest-growing capital in 50 years | Paul Starick
It’s official, Adelaide has been the nation’s slowest-growing capital for years and the brain drain of our young people continues, writes Paul Starick.
Paul Starick

Editor-At-Large
@paulstarick
3 min read
December 23, 2022 - 10:47AM

South Australia, we have a growth problem.

Adelaide has the slowest growth of any Australian capital in the past 50 years, official statistics released on Tuesday reveal.

In an overview of Australia’s capital city population change between 1971 and 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics found Darwin grew by 281.5 per cent, Canberra by 200 per cent, Perth by 194.4 per cent, Brisbane by 168.2 per cent, Melbourne by 90.9 per cent, Sydney by 74.4 per cent, Hobart by 59.8 per cent and Adelaide by 58.7 per cent.

In observations about Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, the ABS noted Perth’s population overtook Adelaide’s in 1984 and has continued to grow at a faster rate ever since.

In 2021, Perth’s population of 2,192,229 in mid-2021 was 56 per cent more than Adelaide’s 1,402,393.

Making matters worse, the much-vaunted “end of the brain drain” during the past few years is a mirage.

The-then Liberal premier Steven Marshall in August last year, rightly, trumpeted Adelaide defying the nation’s biggest population drift from capital cities in 20 years to record a slight gain – the first since 2002.

But closer analysis of an ABS dataset showing net interstate migration by age category shows young people are still fleeing the state.

In the year to June, 2022, once borders had reopened, there was substantial net interstate migration of 1400 out of SA for people aged 20-34 years. Presumably, they were leaving SA at the start of their careers in search of opportunity.

By contrast, a substantial majority of the net migration into SA was by people aged 50 and older. In fact, there was negative net migration for people aged less than 60. The biggest numbers of people moving to SA were in the 50-64 age group – net positive interstate migration of 1220.

Hearteningly, a trend for more people aged 34-49 to migrate to SA than leave continued. There was a net interstate migration to SA of 70 people – in 2016/17 there was net interstate migration from SA of 1350 people.

In summary, older people are those returning to SA while younger people are leaving in droves.

There are immense consequences of slow population growth, when coupled with a continued brain drain of young people. People’s lifestyles suffer, even if many hope to preserve Adelaide and SA’s enviable attractions by keeping things as they are. Comparatively fewer people means a smaller tax base to fund public services and less clout on the national stage to attract federal spending.

Evidence presented in February to The Advertiser’s Building a Bigger, Better South Australia forum included stark gross state product figures, which measure the economy’s size. These showed SA’s growth since 1990-91 had averaged 2.1 per cent, compared to the national average of 2.9 per cent – if SA’s share had stayed at 1990-91 levels the economy would be $29bn larger.

The $29bn gap between SA’s economic output and the national average is slightly less than twice the total cost of the $15.4bn Torrens to Darlington motorway.

The-then Committee for Adelaide chief executive and former soccer star Bruce Djite was unfairly howled down by some in February for daring to suggest that Adelaide should grow to a city of two million during the next decade.

Subsequently, Mr Djite in May credibly argued that population growth was vital so SA could flourish economically, socially and culturally.

“To achieve this, we must attract enough skilled talent, including homegrown, interstate, and overseas talent, to establish and expand local businesses with global reach, as well as improving the vibrancy and establishing the critical mass required to further improve our quality of life. None of this is possible if we continue to regress relative to the rest of the nation,” he said.

Premier Peter Malinauskas aspires to “dramatically grow the state’s economic complexity”, by building satellites and nuclear-powered submarines. He wants to continue Mr Marshall’s legacy by growing cyber, biotech, machine learning and other hi-tech industries which his Liberal predecessor worked hard to foster.

“That matters, of course, because our ambition is to ensure that the next generation of South Australians enjoy the same opportunities that were enjoyed post World War Two in the late 1940s and the late 1950s,” Mr Malinauskas said in a December 2 speech, arguing the opportunity ahead was similar to the Playford-era industrialisation jobs and population boom.

SA’s economic and population growth problems will not be solved by hankering for the good old days or seeking stagnation. Rather, they require Mr Malinauskas and other leaders to aim high, in the interests of future generations’ prosperity.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opi ... 1671777393

[Jaymz]

Those figures from the ABS make for pretty dire reading, embarassing that we are even behind Hobart. I would've never expected that in a million years.

It wouldn't seem anywhere near as bad if the populations of our regional centres had grown significantly in that time, in fact I'd even say it would be a much better outcome. This hasn't been the case though.

[abc]

it seems like everywhere else is doing that

none of these things make the world a better place either

building satellites and nuclear-powered submarines. He wants to continue Mr Marshall’s legacy by growing cyber, biotech, machine learning and other hi-tech industries

there were positives to SA's stagnation up until a few years back... ie lack of traffic, quiet safe place etc...
there's still a lack of traffic, if anything its less since covid...however the growing drug problem here which seems to have filled the void of the job losses from deindustrialisation is a worrying trend

[Jaymz]

The Commsec State of the States report was released a few days ago for the December '22 quarter. S.A has moved up to third place, we have ranked first on two of the indicators.

Download the PDF after this link for the full report.......


https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/ne ... nd%20place.

[rev]

The Commsec State of the States report was released a few days ago for the December '22 quarter. S.A has moved up to third place, we have ranked first on two of the indicators.

Download the PDF after this link for the full report.......


https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/ne ... nd%20place.

South Australia ranked first on construction work and dwelling starts.

That's interesting, considering how many housing developments exist in Melbourne for example.

[Jaymz]

The Commsec State of the States report was released a few days ago for the December '22 quarter. S.A has moved up to third place, we have ranked first on two of the indicators.

Download the PDF after this link for the full report.......


https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/ne ... nd%20place.

South Australia ranked first on construction work and dwelling starts.

That's interesting, considering how many housing developments exist in Melbourne for example.

Yep, it's just because of the way these statistics are rated.... they go by the current figures versus the "decade average" for each of them, not sheer numbers.

For instance, Tasmania has been ranking at or close to the top for a while, but because their decade average was quite low it only has to have a reasonable increase in their economy for it to rank highly. To a lesser extent this is also the case for S.A.

The exact opposite to that scenario is in effect for W.A, hence their lower ranking over the past few years.

In this report, S.A is ranked last on economic growth which sounds bad but is still 24% above its decade average. A good result in the scheme of things.

[Hex]

>https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opi ... 1671777393

This seems extremely dire tbh. It does seem like the SA population idealizes the faults. You get people claiming we need to keep trading hours restricted so young people don't have to work weekends, and the young people respond by moving to a city that doesn't dictate when they can work and shop. Young people don't want to live in a car centric retirement state that is constantly dragging 10 years behind the other cities. Why would you stay here when Melbourne rent is cheaper on average, more available, and the jobs pay more. Not to mention the countless social and entertainment benefits of a larger city with a younger population.

I get we can't easily afford the expensive stuff like a functioning rail transport system, but it would at least be nice if they could be ahead of the game on free stuff like scooter laws and rental reforms. How did we end up having the longest scooter trials in the country with a premier who didn't even realize they were illegal?

[abc]

>https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opi ... 1671777393

This seems extremely dire tbh. It does seem like the SA population idealizes the faults. You get people claiming we need to keep trading hours restricted so young people don't have to work weekends, and the young people respond by moving to a city that doesn't dictate when they can work and shop. Young people don't want to live in a car centric retirement state that is constantly dragging 10 years behind the other cities. Why would you stay here when Melbourne rent is cheaper on average, more available, and the jobs pay more. Not to mention the countless social and entertainment benefits of a larger city with a younger population.

I get we can't easily afford the expensive stuff like a functioning rail transport system, but it would at least be nice if they could be ahead of the game on free stuff like scooter laws and rental reforms. How did we end up having the longest scooter trials in the country with a premier who didn't even realize they were illegal?

the rent in Melbourne is cheaper because they built hundreds of apartment blocks for Chinese students prior to covid and prior to our bosses in Washington deciding they hate China... now many of them lay empty resulting in a glut

[Jaymz]

>https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opi ... 1671777393

This seems extremely dire tbh. It does seem like the SA population idealizes the faults. You get people claiming we need to keep trading hours restricted so young people don't have to work weekends, and the young people respond by moving to a city that doesn't dictate when they can work and shop. Young people don't want to live in a car centric retirement state that is constantly dragging 10 years behind the other cities. Why would you stay here when Melbourne rent is cheaper on average, more available, and the jobs pay more. Not to mention the countless social and entertainment benefits of a larger city with a younger population.

I get we can't easily afford the expensive stuff like a functioning rail transport system, but it would at least be nice if they could be ahead of the game on free stuff like scooter laws and rental reforms. How did we end up having the longest scooter trials in the country with a premier who didn't even realize they were illegal?

the rent in Melbourne is cheaper because they built hundreds of apartment blocks for Chinese students prior to covid and prior to our bosses in Washington deciding they hate China... now many of them lay empty resulting in a glut

This is probably the first half-sensible post you have ever
written.

[abc]

>https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opi ... 1671777393

This seems extremely dire tbh. It does seem like the SA population idealizes the faults. You get people claiming we need to keep trading hours restricted so young people don't have to work weekends, and the young people respond by moving to a city that doesn't dictate when they can work and shop. Young people don't want to live in a car centric retirement state that is constantly dragging 10 years behind the other cities. Why would you stay here when Melbourne rent is cheaper on average, more available, and the jobs pay more. Not to mention the countless social and entertainment benefits of a larger city with a younger population.

I get we can't easily afford the expensive stuff like a functioning rail transport system, but it would at least be nice if they could be ahead of the game on free stuff like scooter laws and rental reforms. How did we end up having the longest scooter trials in the country with a premier who didn't even realize they were illegal?

the rent in Melbourne is cheaper because they built hundreds of apartment blocks for Chinese students prior to covid and prior to our bosses in Washington deciding they hate China... now many of them lay empty resulting in a glut

This is probably the first half-sensible post you have ever
written.

you don't have to insult me because you happen to know the truth about one thing

[Jaymz]

Some positive news on the population front for S.A. From todays online version of The Advertiser......

Adelaide is nation’s third-fastest growing capital, Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal
Adelaide is defying decades-old trends and outgrowing the country’s biggest cities, official figures reveal.

Paul Starick
April 20, 2023 - 5:14PM

Adelaide is overturning decades of sluggishness to become the nation’s third-fastest growing capital city, official figures reveal, fuelled by booming overseas migration.

Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show the South Australian capital defying a 50-year trend to grow at 1.1 per cent, behind Perth (1.5 per cent) and Brisbane (2.3 per cent)

The growth spurt in the 2021-22 financial year is a dramatic acceleration from Adelaide’s five-decade trend of lagging behind other cities.

According to ABS figures released last December, Adelaide had the slowest growth of any Australian capital in the past 50 years.

But Greater Adelaide added 16,062 people in 2021-22, of which 11,513 were overseas migrants.

Premier Peter Malinauskas said the growth figures demonstrated the growing strength of the state’s economy, adding this upswing required investment in services including health, education and housing.

“More people are wanting to move here because there’s more work here and that’s something my government is committed to generating but it also brings with it challenges,” he said.

“ … We’re seeing more activity, we see more people wanting to move here. That’s a reversal of the trend in the past. We’ve outgrown Sydney, that hasn’t happened in a very long time.”

The population surge was particularly concentrated in Adelaide’s northern suburbs and fringes.

The areas with the largest growth rates were Munno Para West-Angle Vale (9 per cent), along with Lewiston-Two Wells (6.8 per cent) and Virginia-Waterloo Corner (6.7 per cent).

The expansion continues bullish data released in March, which showed SA’s population had risen by more than 25,000 people in a single year – marking the second-biggest increase on record.

The population grew by 1.4 per cent to 1.83 million over the year that ended in September 2022, the ABS said.

Opposition Leader David Speirs said international migration increased because of the state’s comparatively safe handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and now presented a chance to alleviate skills shortages, particularly pronounced in the regions.

“However, this is merely one piece of a bigger puzzle and Peter Malinauskas must put huge emphasis on housing and increasing supply to ensure first homeowners and low-income earners aren’t squeezed out of the market because of increased high demand,” he said.

Lord Mayor Jane Lomax-Smith said: “We can’t have young people and essential workers unable to work in our city because they can’t access housing. So, I want Council to find ways to work with property owners and other levels of government to address this, including repurposing buildings that are under-utilised.”

[gnrc_louis]

Premier Peter Malinauskas said the growth figures demonstrated the growing strength of the state’s economy, adding this upswing required investment in services including health, education and housing.

And public transport infrastructure, but this doesn't seem to give a fuck about that

[rev]

1.1% growth isn't that exciting.
Does it even put us in the 'catch up' (to the other states) phase?

[abc]

behind Perth (1.5 per cent) and Brisbane (2.3 per cent)