The Economic News Thread

[muzzamo]

Ric Battellino, Deputy Governor of the RBA, gave a speech this week about why he thinks house prices in Australia will remain high for the foreseeable future. It's a good read, if you're into that sort of thing.

The ABS quarterly figures are out today, the weighted average of the eight capital cities for the quarter was -1.8%.

If you were to take that as a YoY figure (which isn't necessarily a fair assumption but just for arguments sake) thats a 7.2% drop, add 4% inflation to that and it would have dropped 11% in real terms.

I think it will be a case of "wait and see" in terms of whether we follow the US or not. The bear in me tells me that its going to get at least as bad here as in the UK.

Someone has already graphed it:

[AtD]

Do you have a version of that graph in real terms?

[monotonehell]

Do you have a version of that graph in real terms?

True dat, but consider this -- one feeds into the other. The problem with economics is as soon as you pin down one measure, if affects 15 other measures.

[muzzamo]

Do you have a version of that graph in real terms?

No, but case-schiller, abs and nationwide are all publicly available data...


I guess the only one that comes close is this one

[frank1]

This doesn't sound too good........

November 06, 2008 12:01am

SOUTH Australians must brace for more cuts in spending, possible job cuts and the deferral of vital projects because of a huge drop in GST funds, the Government has warned.

SA is facing losses of around $504 million over the next three financial years. Already, the Government has deferred construction of the $775 million prisons project involving sites at Mobilong and Cavan.

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday that predicted tax receipts had been revised down by $4.9 billion in 2008-09, $12.2 billion in 2009-10, $12.4 billion in 2010-11 and $7.9 billion in 2011-12.

As a result, GST revenue for the states will be down by $1.4 billion in the current financial year and by $1.9 billion in 2009-10.

Acting Treasurer Paul Holloway said yesterday the Government would have to "look at making cuts".

Mr Holloway said apart from the hospital, desalination and super schools projects, everything else was on the table. He would not rule out public sector job losses.

The global economic crisis has hit federal tax revenues to such an extent that SA's share of the GST for the coming financial year will drop by $126 million. SA is already facing a $280 million black hole in the Budget because of the global crisis and the latest figures – in the Commonwealth's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – mean that will blow out to nearly $400 million.

Treasurer Kevin Foley had been expected to make a financial statement to Parliament before it rose at the end of this month.

However, it is now likely he will reveal the details of his proposed spending cuts in the mid-year Budget review due late in December. Treasury officials are working on options for the Treasurer and were waiting for the figures from Mr Swan's financial statement, released yesterday.

Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith said it showed the Government had not made enough provision for the tough times and had been relying on windfall tax revenues continuing.

He believed the $400 million black hole in the Budget was likely to be closer to $500 million because of the blowout in superannuation unfunded liabilities.

[muzzamo]

The bank of england cut rates by 1.5% they must be shit scared..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/busin ... f=business

[omada]

From Ze Advertiser:

SOUTH Australia's jobless rate unexpectedly fell last month, but is still the highest in the nation.
The unemployment rate dropped to 5.3 per cent, from 5.7 per cent in September, defying predictions of more job losses in tough economic times.
However, Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith was concerned the state "continues to have the highest unemployment figures in the nation".
He also pointed out the state's youth unemployment rate was 25.7 per cent - 9 points higher than the national average of 16.5 per cent.
Business SA chief executive officer Peter Vaughan said the local figures indicated there was still demand for labour, despite "the economic slowdown".
"While unemployment is forecast to increase, the recent interest rate cuts and the busy Christmas trading period may provide some relief to the
employing community," he said. Nationally, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.3 per cent.

Would this be the "resources boom" finally having an effect in SA?

[AtD]

^^ Month to month unemployment data is not very accurate these days (thanks to Mr. Rudd's budget cuts at the ABS). If you look at the data on the ABS website, the statistical error is huge, especially for smaller states. The movement in SA's unemployment rate is entirely due to movements in the participation rate (number of people deemed to be looking for work) and less due to the number of employed people. There was a very good article in the Age the other day regarding this, but damned if I can find it now.

[monotonehell]

I can't find the story online, but I understand from Lateline that Merrill Lynch just awarded Australia the riskiest economy to invest in, in the World?

Edit: found it!
The reporter got it wrong maybe? The article I just found says "Austria" but the text says Australia.

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?c ... =2&i=16248 (table near bottom)

...Merrill Lynch has also constructed a (subjective) risk ranking for all major world economies and regions. Is ranking is based on seven indicators; (1) current account financing gap, (2) FX reserves/short-term external debt ratio, (3) exports-to- GDP ratio, (4) private credit-to-GDP ratio, (5) private credit growth, (6) loans-to- deposits ratio, and (7) banks capital-to-assets ratio.

ML found EMEA the most vulnerable and BRIC the safest. Hungary ranks 5th.

According to ML's risk ranking, the most vulnerable regions in the world are EMEA, Americas and Emerging EMEA, while BRIC, Latin America and Emerging Asia emerge as the safest.

The world's ten most vulnerable economies are: Australia, Switzerland, Korea, Romania, Hungary, Sweden, Bulgaria, Euro area, UK and US. The world's ten least vulnerable economies are Nigeria, Mexico, Philipinnes, Colombia, Egypt, Oman, Indonesia, Peru, China and Russia...

[AtD]

Gross State Product for 2007-08 was released today. South Australia was the third fastest growing state.

http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/ ... enDocument

Code: Select all

GSP, Chain Volume measures - 2007-08 - Annual growth
NSW:  2.8
VIC:  3.2
QLD:  5.3
SA:   3.8
WA:   5.2
TAS:  3.4
NT:   3.9
ACT:  2.5
Aust: 3.7

But in per capita terms, SA was equal second:
GSP PER CAPITA, Chain volume measures—2007–08


So, go us.

[Düsseldorfer]

and In other news, Europe is now in Recession

[frank1]

December 16, 2008 02:05pm

A LIKELY Budget deficit of $94 million shows the State Government has squandered the good years, the Opposition says.

Responding to Treasurer Kevin Foley's admission that the state will face a deficit in this Friday's mid-year Budget review, Opposition leader Martin Hamilton-Smith said the Government's delay was "an insult" to South Australians.

"Mr Foley and (Premier) Mr Rann have not managed the state economy well during seven of the best years we have ever had," he said.

"Today Mr Foley has used the D word, deficit. He's admitted we will be going into deficit not just this year, but in future years.

"That's a testament to his inability to manage a Budget over seven years.

"Just like the banks, they've had a wonderful time taxing and spending and now they've been caught out. They've got insufficient surplus and insufficient money in the bank to see us through this downturn."

The Liberal Party is forecasting a $94 million deficit and an increase of unfunded superannuation liabilities from $7 billion to $9.5 billion.

A 3.2 per cent fall in GST revenue – which makes up about half the State's revenue – and an 11 per cent fall in property taxes underpin the calculations.

Mr Hamilton-Smith said the delayed release of the review was a further insult.

"It's not good enough, but the biggest insult of all is that in the shadow of Christmas, virtually on Christmas Eve, Mr Rann and Mr Foley are going to hand out the bad news."

[Will409]

Depsite the 'subtle' opposition bias in that article, I have the say that a $94million isn't that bad in the greater scheme of things considering what some of the eastern states are saddled with (I think Queensland has a $806 million deficit predicted).

[AG]

NSW has a deficit forecast of $712 million. A deficit isn't a bad thing if the government has gone into a deficit for the right reasons and responsibly, particularly if it is the stimulate the economy. It's similar to how using debt for the right reasons can be good over a longer term, yet most people see deficit and debt as dirty words, particularly now.

[AtD]

Macroeconomics 101: A surplus in the current climate is irresponsible. It means the government is removing more money from the economy than it is injecting.