The Economic News Thread

[Will]

I am sick to death of business whinging about how much tax they pay. In case they have forgotten these businesses operate in a society and thus have responsibilities to that society. I hope that people wake up one day and realise that these calls from business are driven by greed and a desire for more power. If they pay less tax, the government recoups less tax. Therefore the general population will suffer from reduced services and weak toothless governments.

Business cannot have it both ways. They cannot demand reduced taxes and less government intervention when times are good and then when things go bad ask for tax-payer funded bailouts!

[ricecrackers]

Moderator's note: Topic split from http://www.sensational-adelaide.com/for ... &start=825

the future is practically nothing of significance will get built in Adelaide for about 10 years

dont worry about the brown boxes... they wont get built either..there wont be the need for the extra office space for a while

its happened before, it will happen that way again

i guess the site will have to change its logo

You do realise the site and plans are up for sale together as one package?
10 years? You based this on what exactly, a few doom and gloom the world is ending conspiracy theory articles on line or something? The developer him self says 4-5 years before something is built on this site. Yet you pull a magical figure of 10 years out of...thin air..
Wont be any need for extra office space in Adelaide for a while? We have one of the lowest vacancy rates on the mainland..
Bigger projects have been canned interstate already, but I don't hear them crying nothing will get built for another 10 years at least.

I actually think that in a few years when the global economy has turned around, we will see more larger developments in Adelaide because there will be a need for them. Adelaide will become a more denser city and the skyline will be more spread out. We do not have the massive state bank debt as last time.
Try not to think of this as a major loss, but rather a necessary cull.

i've based it on the last recession, which i lived through and added some interest, because this one will be worse.

between 1990 and 2000 there was very little built of significance in the Adelaide CBD zone. if you've got evidence to the contrary, i'm open to that.

before 1990 during the late 80's building boom, we saw a lot of brown boxes go up because the council allowed it to occur. something we've seen change in recent years is a greater focus on architectural merit and as a result, what has been built has been of a slightly better quality.

brown boxes dont go up during recessions is my point. very little does.

[Will]

the future is practically nothing of significance will get built in Adelaide for about 10 years

dont worry about the brown boxes... they wont get built either..there wont be the need for the extra office space for a while

its happened before, it will happen that way again

i guess the site will have to change its logo

You do realise the site and plans are up for sale together as one package?
10 years? You based this on what exactly, a few doom and gloom the world is ending conspiracy theory articles on line or something? The developer him self says 4-5 years before something is built on this site. Yet you pull a magical figure of 10 years out of...thin air..
Wont be any need for extra office space in Adelaide for a while? We have one of the lowest vacancy rates on the mainland..
Bigger projects have been canned interstate already, but I don't hear them crying nothing will get built for another 10 years at least.

I actually think that in a few years when the global economy has turned around, we will see more larger developments in Adelaide because there will be a need for them. Adelaide will become a more denser city and the skyline will be more spread out. We do not have the massive state bank debt as last time.
Try not to think of this as a major loss, but rather a necessary cull.

i've based it on the last recession, which i lived through and added some interest, because this one will be worse.

between 1990 and 2000 there was very little built of significance in the Adelaide CBD zone. if you've got evidence to the contrary, i'm open to that.

before 1990 during the late 80's building boom, we saw a lot of brown boxes go up because the council allowed it to occur. something we've seen change in recent years is a greater focus on architectural merit and as a result, what has been built has been of a slightly better quality.

brown boxes dont go up during recessions is my point. very little does.

But surely we are in a better position this time. We no longer have the state bank debt, our economy is more diversified and we have some excellent mining resources which will be ready to go when the world economy improves.

[ricecrackers]

You do realise the site and plans are up for sale together as one package?
10 years? You based this on what exactly, a few doom and gloom the world is ending conspiracy theory articles on line or something? The developer him self says 4-5 years before something is built on this site. Yet you pull a magical figure of 10 years out of...thin air..
Wont be any need for extra office space in Adelaide for a while? We have one of the lowest vacancy rates on the mainland..
Bigger projects have been canned interstate already, but I don't hear them crying nothing will get built for another 10 years at least.

I actually think that in a few years when the global economy has turned around, we will see more larger developments in Adelaide because there will be a need for them. Adelaide will become a more denser city and the skyline will be more spread out. We do not have the massive state bank debt as last time.
Try not to think of this as a major loss, but rather a necessary cull.

i've based it on the last recession, which i lived through and added some interest, because this one will be worse.

between 1990 and 2000 there was very little built of significance in the Adelaide CBD zone. if you've got evidence to the contrary, i'm open to that.

before 1990 during the late 80's building boom, we saw a lot of brown boxes go up because the council allowed it to occur. something we've seen change in recent years is a greater focus on architectural merit and as a result, what has been built has been of a slightly better quality.

brown boxes dont go up during recessions is my point. very little does.

But surely we are in a better position this time. We no longer have the state bank debt, our economy is more diversified and we have some excellent mining resources which will be ready to go when the world economy improves.

the state bank debt had nothing to do with the state of health of the SA free economy... more the state of health of the state govts finances. it was a victim of another GFC. it probably effected capital works more than anything....but we've seen already how the govt has had to curb spending there already as the credit squeeze has made borrowing more difficult.

this thing hasnt even started yet..people dont realize...they think this is as bad as it gets and its all uphill from now and by 2010 its all going to be sweet again

the result of the 87 crash didnt filter through completely for another 2 years...we're probably about 1 year into that so this time next year we'll begin to realize we're in a recession.

the mining sector is not something to wholly base your economy on to be recession proof.... its always been boom and bust cycle.

whether the economy of the state is more diversified than it was 20 years ago... i'm not so sure about that.. you'd need to provide me with some evidence...... i'm not even sure thats the case for the whole country which has really dumbed down across the board during the Howard years and i think we might pay for that lack of investment in the people when the demand for our raw materials falls away.

anyway, i'm sorry for going off topic.

[rev]

Where is your evidence this is going to be worse then the last one then...?

[Norman]

What's different today you ask? Firstly, a much lower unemplyment rate, back in the 90s SA's unemployment rate was often more than 10% ('91-'94) and has slowly decreased to the lower level of 4.5%. It's about 5% right now AFAIK, while the participation rate has steadily increased since the 80s. (ABS 1350.6). Secondly, our economy is very diverse these days, AdT posted up some data recently confirming this, our economy is much more diverse than out west, but very similar to Victoria. So if any state is going for bust this GFC, it would be WA.

[Cruise]

the state bank debt had nothing to do with the state of health of the SA free economy... more the state of health of the state govts finances. it was a victim of another GFC. it probably effected capital works more than anything....but we've seen already how the govt has had to curb spending there already as the credit squeeze has made borrowing more difficult.

this thing hasnt even started yet..people dont realize...they think this is as bad as it gets and its all uphill from now and by 2010 its all going to be sweet again

the result of the 87 crash didnt filter through completely for another 2 years...we're probably about 1 year into that so this time next year we'll begin to realize we're in a recession.

the mining sector is not something to wholly base your economy on to be recession proof.... its always been boom and bust cycle.

whether the economy of the state is more diversified than it was 20 years ago... i'm not so sure about that.. you'd need to provide me with some evidence...... i'm not even sure thats the case for the whole country which has really dumbed down across the board during the Howard years and i think we might pay for that lack of investment in the people when the demand for our raw materials falls away.

anyway, i'm sorry for going off topic.

Yes, We are all going to have to eat soil from now on

[ricecrackers]

What's different today you ask? Firstly, a much lower unemplyment rate, back in the 90s SA's unemployment rate was often more than 10% ('91-'94) and has slowly decreased to the lower level of 4.5%. It's about 5% right now AFAIK, while the participation rate has steadily increased since the 80s. (ABS 1350.6). Secondly, our economy is very diverse these days, AdT posted up some data recently confirming this, our economy is much more diverse than out west, but very similar to Victoria. So if any state is going for bust this GFC, it would be WA.

you cant compare our unemployment now with the recession from 91-94, as the recession hasnt even started yet

we havent even had our 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth yet, where we are now is about 1989 in the cycle...check the unemployment rate then and compare apples with apples.. i think you'll find it was around 6.5%

you also need to take into account how these statistics are reported and how that has changed over the years. the concept of underemployment for example, didnt exist in our terminology during the 1980's

[rev]

Hang on a minute. You say you can't compare our unemployment rate to that of the last recession.
Yet aren't you the one who said he based his prediction that this one would be worse then the last one, on the last one?

So while it's good for you to do, what's acceptable for us to use as a point of reference?

I'm still waiting for you to answer my query...where's your evidence? ..if you have any that is credible and not some hack piece journalism bordering on the conspiracy theory of evil banking elite obsessed with world domination crashing the economy on purpose..


If we do what you are doing, then the outlook is not as grim as you make it out to be.
What you are doing, by your own admission, is comparing now to the past.
Well, unfortunately for your doom and gloom the sky is falling preaching, we are in a much stronger and healthier position then last time.


On another note, the company that makes underwear/clothing such as Bonds/Berlie etc is shutting all factories in Australia and moving production to South East Asia. Nearly 2,000 Australians will soon be out of work so yet another company can use cheap ass labour in Asia to make a bigger profit. They even turned down federal government assistance. Bloody disgrace.

[ricecrackers]

Hang on a minute. You say you can't compare our unemployment rate to that of the last recession.
Yet aren't you the one who said he based his prediction that this one would be worse then the last one, on the last one?

So while it's good for you to do, what's acceptable for us to use as a point of reference?

I'm still waiting for you to answer my query...where's your evidence? ..if you have any that is credible and not some hack piece journalism bordering on the conspiracy theory of evil banking elite obsessed with world domination crashing the economy on purpose..


If we do what you are doing, then the outlook is not as grim as you make it out to be.
What you are doing, by your own admission, is comparing now to the past.
Well, unfortunately for your doom and gloom the sky is falling preaching, we are in a much stronger and healthier position then last time.


On another note, the company that makes underwear/clothing such as Bonds/Berlie etc is shutting all factories in Australia and moving production to South East Asia. Nearly 2,000 Australians will soon be out of work so yet another company can use cheap ass labour in Asia to make a bigger profit. They even turned down federal government assistance. Bloody disgrace.

take the time to actually read what i'm saying ....once again.... we arent in a recession yet... we havent yet had our 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

that is why you can compare unemployment figures from the middle of the last recession to those of now, as the recession hasnt even begun.

major economies of the world are already officially in recession. thats just a fact, not scaremongering. there is a global recession.

Australia is not going to buck the trend of the rest of the developed world...thats a fantasy if you believe that to be the case.

you want evidence, here's your evidence...its really not hard to find

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollar ... 3620090225

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... I&refer=uk

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news ... -8h2o.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticN ... 3420090223

it hasnt really hit China yet, but when it does, Australia will be next on the list

its a domino effect and due to the nature of Australia's raw material economy there is a lag time before it finds its way here.



however, i'm open to any evidence you'd like to provide to the contrary

[rev]

Stop trying to bullshit me around, you clearly said your comparing this time to the last.
So how come we can't compare aspects of this time to the last time, but you can?
And what is it exactly that you are comparing?

Who said we wont have a recession in Australia? I don't recall saying that, nor reading anyone else saying it......stop putting words in our mouths to boost your argument or lack of.


What we are saying is, YES, we will be affected and already are(cancellation and subsequent putting on sale of site and plans for curry st tower as one example)


I'm not asking for evidence that we will be in a recession, or that other countries are already in one.
You made the bold claim this one will be worse then the last one.
And the one link you did provide that is about Australia, doesn't even mention Australia going into recession, let alone it being worse then last time.


Here, I'll give you some of the reasons why it (probably)wont be worse then the last one, yet again..

Defence industry in this state is huge and set to get even bigger- 8 billion dollar destroyer contract and 15 billion dollar submarine contract are just two examples.
Resources/mining industry
And as others stated a more diversified economy and lower unemployment rates.

[monotonehell]

Stop trying to bullshit me around, you clearly said your comparing this time to the last.
So how come we can't compare aspects of this time to the last time, but you can?
And what is it exactly that you are comparing?

Not defending either of you two's points of view in this, but Rev, you've got hold of the wrong end of the stick on this point. What was said earlier was that we can't compare the unemployment levels in the middle of the '90's recession to the start of the current one. If any comparisons are to be made we'd need to compare the same stage in the recession cycle.

Just some caveats:

Relying on the mining industry if the Rest of the World(RotW) goes into recession has flow on effects. If China are manufacturing less because the RotW are buying less, then China will need less raw material and therefore buy less raw material from Australia. (Note the "if"s)

The defence industry only gets as much cash injections as the Government are willing to expend. Government's ability to expend is reliant on taxation, which is tied closely to GDP. Again something we can't rely on as there are flow on effects down the line.

I don't actually know, but I was lead to believe that we have a less diversified economy these days. With the closure of manufacturing plants and the shrinkage of viable primary industry due to the change in climate. I thought most of our new "industry" was B2B, which is the first to fall if the market falls ??

: Discuss...

[ricecrackers]

Not defending either of you two's points of view in this, but Rev, you've got hold of the wrong end of the stick on this point. What was said earlier was that we can't compare the unemployment levels in the middle of the '90's recession to the start of the current one. If any comparisons are to be made we'd need to compare the same stage in the recession cycle.

Just some caveats:

Relying on the mining industry if the Rest of the World(RotW) goes into recession has flow on effects. If China are manufacturing less because the RotW are buying less, then China will need less raw material and therefore buy less raw material from Australia. (Note the "if"s)

The defence industry only gets as much cash injections as the Government are willing to expend. Government's ability to expend is reliant on taxation, which is tied closely to GDP. Again something we can't rely on as there are flow on effects down the line.

I don't actually know, but I was lead to believe that we have a less diversified economy these days. With the closure of manufacturing plants and the shrinkage of viable primary industry due to the change in climate. I thought most of our new "industry" was B2B, which is the first to fall if the market falls ??

: Discuss...

thankyou

[rev]

What are you thanking him for? he hasn't gotten you off the hook, because the question still remains unanswered.


Mono, I don't disagree with what you are saying.
Mining industry job ads are down. A lot.
But, here in SA a lot of exploration work was carried out, and several operations were on the verge of kicking off if I'm not mistaken. So while they may not go ahead now due to less demand for our resources, the economy will turn around again and demand will increase again, surely making these operations viable.
As for the defence industry, well the battalion being moved here is still going ahead as is the construction of housing for it.
The destroyer project at outer harbour with the tech port & maritime skills centre is still going ahead.
And the submarine replacement contract will go ahead, although all that will be preliminary "paper" work.
I think they were also servicing/doing maintenance on several thousand Army vehicles here too.

Look I'll say it again, things might be getting worse, they will get worse then they are now. But things will get better, and we have two industries which require thousands of workers which will boom.
I don't know if things will be worse then last time, who really does? ricecrackers? Well, he claimed just that, and all I'm asking is for is something to back up that claim because it is a rather bold statement, but so far he has dodged the question.

[ricecrackers]

i havent dodged any question FFS.... you've been throwing wild accusations at me for producing inconsistent responses and i've been setting the record straight.

why do i think it will be worse than the last recession...is that your question?

for starters do you even remember the last recession? do you remember what it was like before that?

if its even as bad as the last recession that will stall major privately invested building projects for several years...that was near to a decade last time.

if its worse than the last recession then in all likelihood that will be a decade.

reports out of the USA say its already worse there now than the recession of the early 90's...much worse.

so if its worse there, does that mean it will be worse here? not necessarily, however as much as people will point to China being a major driver of the world economy in the future, that is still yet to materialize.

the USA economy is still the single biggest influence on our own economy and that of Europe. the banking system is a worldwide network...and if it gets constipated in the USA that flows through to credit worldwide and without credit we cannot have growth and without growth we cannot avoid recession.