The Economic News Thread
Now with Beer Garden for our smoking patrons.Re: The Economic News Thread
Look on the bright side. During period of doom people drink more, and our state produces Australia's finest alcohol!
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Neuropolis
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Re: The Economic News Thread
I'm inclined to agree with Ricecrackers here. I am old enough to remember the last recession and there was virtually no major development in Adelaide for the best part of a decade. During that time, SA had a lot of unemployment.
Federal and State Governments don't have endless coffers. How do you think they are getting that 42 Billion to put into our national economy? They are borrowing heavily which means the nation will be in debt for years to come. There are flow on effects to States.
Our own State has lost plenty of money in all this and projects are being put on hold. Mark my words, I will be shocked if even half of the slated developments get to completion over the next 5 years in this State.
We have a less diversified economy. We have been moving our manufacturing sector offshore and we have caught the privatisation disease, which is oh so successful in other countries...not
Mining sector is reliant on exports to other booming economies. If they don't want our materials, our mining sector is next to useless.
Basically, if there is less to go around and people are spending less, then everything slows down, including development.
I realise that many of you are very much of the half glass full persuasion and visit this board to get excited about shiny new buildings here in SA, but you might also have to accept (or not) that our SA boom is going to be a short lived one.
And on a personal note...I'd be very happy to see Adelaide remain nice and small...I can't stand the rotten proximity of urban density and overpopulation *takes cover*
Federal and State Governments don't have endless coffers. How do you think they are getting that 42 Billion to put into our national economy? They are borrowing heavily which means the nation will be in debt for years to come. There are flow on effects to States.
Our own State has lost plenty of money in all this and projects are being put on hold. Mark my words, I will be shocked if even half of the slated developments get to completion over the next 5 years in this State.
We have a less diversified economy. We have been moving our manufacturing sector offshore and we have caught the privatisation disease, which is oh so successful in other countries...not
Mining sector is reliant on exports to other booming economies. If they don't want our materials, our mining sector is next to useless.
Basically, if there is less to go around and people are spending less, then everything slows down, including development.
I realise that many of you are very much of the half glass full persuasion and visit this board to get excited about shiny new buildings here in SA, but you might also have to accept (or not) that our SA boom is going to be a short lived one.
And on a personal note...I'd be very happy to see Adelaide remain nice and small...I can't stand the rotten proximity of urban density and overpopulation *takes cover*
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Queen Anne
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Re: The Economic News Thread
Lol, no need to take cover. But..Neuropolis wrote:And on a personal note...I'd be very happy to see Adelaide remain nice and small...I can't stand the rotten proximity of urban density and overpopulation *takes cover*
Adelaide has a huge footprint, so is not 'nice and small', depending on how you look at it. In my point of view, our huge spread over the land is the 'population' problem we need to address. I would much rather a vibrant, denser city (no need for it to be rotten) surrounded by real towns, and our precious farmland and natural places. Even without a large population growth we are managing to lose these things, creating a homogenous sprawl. Time to try something else, imo, and I think greater urban density might be it.
I should stop, as this is not quite on topic. It's just that living in America is a great lesson in sprawl awareness...give me urban density, any day!
Re: The Economic News Thread
Here is an interesting one!
SARAH MARTIN, JESSICA LEO
March 03, 2009 10:00pm
ADELAIDE companies are being flooded with job applications from interstate in a reversal of a brain drain.
Crediting the financial crisis for the renewed interest, recruitment firms say South Australia's economic stability and lifestyle have become the envy of many.
And despite the influx creating a more competitive job market, the consensus is that SA stands to benefit from the resurgent interest.
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Have you moved to SA recently for a new job? Tell us why.
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Stillwell Management Consultants managing director Daryl Stillwell said 30 per cent of its job applicants were from interstate or overseas – a boom he has not seen in his 25 years in the industry.
"There is definitely an increased trend and while it has been happening for the past five years, it has become more pronounced during the so-called global financial crisis," Mr Stillwell said.
"The South Australian economy has been relatively stable compared to other parts of the world and people still have an optimistic view of South Australia's future," he said.
Mr Stillwell said lifestyle considerations, job security and career advancement were all contributing to the buoyed interest.
He said since September last year the market had turned from a candidate's market to become more balanced and competitive.
"It gives the employer a greater range of quality employees to choose from and it keeps employees on their toes, ensuring they are well-prepared and have thought through very carefully what they can offer," he said.
"It is good for everybody, because it raises the standard of leadership and management in organisations in SA."
Hays regional director Nicola Hurran said SA did not usually get interstate applications in such numbers, but now "we are dealing with a higher number than ever".
Locher Human Resources executive chair Christine Locher said the firm had seen "a marked increase in the number of applications from both interstate and overseas candidates, particularly South Australians looking to come back home".
Two management positions recently advertised by SA Great attracted 20 per cent of applications from outside the state, SA Great chief executive Nikki Seymour-Smith said.
"It is really encouraging because part of our role is to market SA to the expats and try to get them to come home," she said.
Moving to Adelaide from Sydney well before any financial crisis, Hassell senior associate architect Tim Horton found SA has plenty to offer, despite his initial reservations.
"My preconception was that the pace of the city was slower. I haven't found that. I've never been busier," Mr Horton said.
"The other myth is that its (Adelaide's) vision is limited . . . I know why people say that, but my experience with the people we work with is they are open-minded and outward-focused.
SARAH MARTIN, JESSICA LEO
March 03, 2009 10:00pm
ADELAIDE companies are being flooded with job applications from interstate in a reversal of a brain drain.
Crediting the financial crisis for the renewed interest, recruitment firms say South Australia's economic stability and lifestyle have become the envy of many.
And despite the influx creating a more competitive job market, the consensus is that SA stands to benefit from the resurgent interest.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Have you moved to SA recently for a new job? Tell us why.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stillwell Management Consultants managing director Daryl Stillwell said 30 per cent of its job applicants were from interstate or overseas – a boom he has not seen in his 25 years in the industry.
"There is definitely an increased trend and while it has been happening for the past five years, it has become more pronounced during the so-called global financial crisis," Mr Stillwell said.
"The South Australian economy has been relatively stable compared to other parts of the world and people still have an optimistic view of South Australia's future," he said.
Mr Stillwell said lifestyle considerations, job security and career advancement were all contributing to the buoyed interest.
He said since September last year the market had turned from a candidate's market to become more balanced and competitive.
"It gives the employer a greater range of quality employees to choose from and it keeps employees on their toes, ensuring they are well-prepared and have thought through very carefully what they can offer," he said.
"It is good for everybody, because it raises the standard of leadership and management in organisations in SA."
Hays regional director Nicola Hurran said SA did not usually get interstate applications in such numbers, but now "we are dealing with a higher number than ever".
Locher Human Resources executive chair Christine Locher said the firm had seen "a marked increase in the number of applications from both interstate and overseas candidates, particularly South Australians looking to come back home".
Two management positions recently advertised by SA Great attracted 20 per cent of applications from outside the state, SA Great chief executive Nikki Seymour-Smith said.
"It is really encouraging because part of our role is to market SA to the expats and try to get them to come home," she said.
Moving to Adelaide from Sydney well before any financial crisis, Hassell senior associate architect Tim Horton found SA has plenty to offer, despite his initial reservations.
"My preconception was that the pace of the city was slower. I haven't found that. I've never been busier," Mr Horton said.
"The other myth is that its (Adelaide's) vision is limited . . . I know why people say that, but my experience with the people we work with is they are open-minded and outward-focused.
South Australia the Festival State
Re: The Economic News Thread
I'm probably responsible for half those job applications being sent in!
I have been applying for jobs since forever (18 months now) at about a rate of ten a week, no kidding. You can imagine how frustrating and tiring it has become for me; and to read email after email of "Thanks for your application, but unfortunately we regret to advise you you have been unsucessful"... Let alone, not even hearing back from the majority of employers; and then there's those who call you for an interview and the buck stops there.
It pisses me off to read articles like that below.
I have been applying for jobs since forever (18 months now) at about a rate of ten a week, no kidding. You can imagine how frustrating and tiring it has become for me; and to read email after email of "Thanks for your application, but unfortunately we regret to advise you you have been unsucessful"... Let alone, not even hearing back from the majority of employers; and then there's those who call you for an interview and the buck stops there.
It pisses me off to read articles like that below.
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monotonehell
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Re: The Economic News Thread
You don't live interstate Shuz.Shuz wrote:I'm probably responsible for half those job applications being sent in!
I have been applying for jobs since forever (18 months now) at about a rate of ten a week, no kidding. You can imagine how frustrating and tiring it has become for me; and to read email after email of "Thanks for your application, but unfortunately we regret to advise you you have been unsucessful"... Let alone, not even hearing back from the majority of employers; and then there's those who call you for an interview and the buck stops there.
It pisses me off to read articles like that below.
It's an interesting trend if it's true. Not sure if we have the jobs to supply the demand though.ADELAIDE companies are being flooded with job applications from interstate in a reversal of a brain drain.
Exit on the right in the direction of travel.
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stumpjumper
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Re: The Economic News Thread
Underpinning the ideal of a content community in which people are able to pursue within reason whatever makes them happy, with a reasonable chance of reaching their goals, is a housing market which operates free from distortion.
We're not subject to crises of affordability and accessibility in clothing or food markets - sure, we can't all live on caviar and fillet steak, but our reasonable requirements can be met without to much difficulty.
So why is housing subject to problems of affordability, with prices for average properties rising at times faster than the incomes of average buyers?
I believe that it is because, unlike the markets for shoes, shirts and food, there are distortions in the housing market which are not present in the more 'pure' markets for other items.
These distortions can exist in demand or supply, two sides of the same coin.
Housing demand is fundamentally a function of population growth x ability to borrow (and cost of construction where new stock is concerned) but it may also be affected by special circumstances such as area-specific increased demand caused by employment opportunities in certain areas (eg Roxby Downs, Elizabeth, Whyalla, Woomera) or by social evolutions (eg sea and tree changes or the war-related returned soldier and baby booms).
A normally operating market can accommodate both increased local demands and evolutionary change without undue distortion.
In South Australia, the cost of construction has barely increased in the last 30 years.
On that basis, the relatively rapid rises across the board in South Australian housing stock since the late 90's could be attributed to an influx of buyers from outside SA (which hasn't happened); easy credit (this has been a factor) and restricted supply (which has certainly happened in the case of land).
Existing housing stock has continued to turn over at the historically usual rate of about 15% of existing houses per year. However, the shortage of land puts pressure on the price of existing housing stock.
In SA, we can't do much about the cost and availability of credit. Even if we could control the cost of credit from local lenders (which action would have unwanted side-effects) the nature of modern finance means that people would simply borrow from lenders outside SA.
So the only element in the equation which we could adjust to affect the price of housing is the supply of land.
But rather than increasing the supply of land, which the government can easily do by releasing its own stocks or rezoning private land, perhaps even (but only under certain circumstances) by creating satellite townships such as Elizabeth, governments over the last few decades have chsen to restrict the supply of land.
Such restriction has been in the short term economic interests of the government, and to the great advantage of speculative land owners and developers, who in many ways have acted as de facto advisers to the government in property matters. In its defence, governments often suggest that the cost of providing new allotments with services and transport is higher than the cost of retrofitting established areas for higher density (highly debatable) or that higher density settlement is n balance 'better' urban design than lower (also very debatable on many grounds including personal and social health and happiness - crime rates, family friendliness etc )
A government should not see itself as a corporate entity, seeking financial advantage for itself in the same way that a private businesss would, n matter how attractive the immediate prizes of land speculation are.
I believe that SA governments have fallen into the trap, encouraged by the development industry, of restricting land supply and thereby unnecessarily distorting the housing market to the detriment of average buyers.
However profitable it is to the minority involved, I believe we can do without this distortion.
The government has two choices - magically educate average buyers away from their historical preference for detached houses and land (good luck - there's no evidence of this being possible in Australia), or provide more land, even if it means that government members have to abandon their delusions of being big deals in the world of property development.
Increasing land supply will make housing more affordable and more accessible for average people.
Speculative property development is a great game because the rewards are high, and for those with access to the significant capital required to play the outlays in both physical effort and even in cash need not be great, and, especially if the developer can control parts of the equation, the risk is low, at least while the market is bouyant.
But in an equitable society, undue speculation in the property market is as inappropriate as speculation in the supply of clothing or food.
There must be some reward to encourage activity, but not to the extent and to the restricted participants allowed when the government joins the game by artificially restricting land supply.
We're not subject to crises of affordability and accessibility in clothing or food markets - sure, we can't all live on caviar and fillet steak, but our reasonable requirements can be met without to much difficulty.
So why is housing subject to problems of affordability, with prices for average properties rising at times faster than the incomes of average buyers?
I believe that it is because, unlike the markets for shoes, shirts and food, there are distortions in the housing market which are not present in the more 'pure' markets for other items.
These distortions can exist in demand or supply, two sides of the same coin.
Housing demand is fundamentally a function of population growth x ability to borrow (and cost of construction where new stock is concerned) but it may also be affected by special circumstances such as area-specific increased demand caused by employment opportunities in certain areas (eg Roxby Downs, Elizabeth, Whyalla, Woomera) or by social evolutions (eg sea and tree changes or the war-related returned soldier and baby booms).
A normally operating market can accommodate both increased local demands and evolutionary change without undue distortion.
In South Australia, the cost of construction has barely increased in the last 30 years.
On that basis, the relatively rapid rises across the board in South Australian housing stock since the late 90's could be attributed to an influx of buyers from outside SA (which hasn't happened); easy credit (this has been a factor) and restricted supply (which has certainly happened in the case of land).
Existing housing stock has continued to turn over at the historically usual rate of about 15% of existing houses per year. However, the shortage of land puts pressure on the price of existing housing stock.
In SA, we can't do much about the cost and availability of credit. Even if we could control the cost of credit from local lenders (which action would have unwanted side-effects) the nature of modern finance means that people would simply borrow from lenders outside SA.
So the only element in the equation which we could adjust to affect the price of housing is the supply of land.
But rather than increasing the supply of land, which the government can easily do by releasing its own stocks or rezoning private land, perhaps even (but only under certain circumstances) by creating satellite townships such as Elizabeth, governments over the last few decades have chsen to restrict the supply of land.
Such restriction has been in the short term economic interests of the government, and to the great advantage of speculative land owners and developers, who in many ways have acted as de facto advisers to the government in property matters. In its defence, governments often suggest that the cost of providing new allotments with services and transport is higher than the cost of retrofitting established areas for higher density (highly debatable) or that higher density settlement is n balance 'better' urban design than lower (also very debatable on many grounds including personal and social health and happiness - crime rates, family friendliness etc )
A government should not see itself as a corporate entity, seeking financial advantage for itself in the same way that a private businesss would, n matter how attractive the immediate prizes of land speculation are.
I believe that SA governments have fallen into the trap, encouraged by the development industry, of restricting land supply and thereby unnecessarily distorting the housing market to the detriment of average buyers.
However profitable it is to the minority involved, I believe we can do without this distortion.
The government has two choices - magically educate average buyers away from their historical preference for detached houses and land (good luck - there's no evidence of this being possible in Australia), or provide more land, even if it means that government members have to abandon their delusions of being big deals in the world of property development.
Increasing land supply will make housing more affordable and more accessible for average people.
Speculative property development is a great game because the rewards are high, and for those with access to the significant capital required to play the outlays in both physical effort and even in cash need not be great, and, especially if the developer can control parts of the equation, the risk is low, at least while the market is bouyant.
But in an equitable society, undue speculation in the property market is as inappropriate as speculation in the supply of clothing or food.
There must be some reward to encourage activity, but not to the extent and to the restricted participants allowed when the government joins the game by artificially restricting land supply.
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monotonehell
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Re: The Economic News Thread
Stumpy, are you saying that this is an issue only in SA? Because a look at the HIA's Typical new house prices and land shows SA at around the national average of land costing 44% of total new house price (compared to NSW at 62%! 2005 figures). A couple of the papers I've read (admittedly from the housing industry, they seem to be the only people publishing papers) mention artificial urban boundaries as a factor but concentrate on infrastructure charges through tax being disproportionate. I've seen the same tunes coming out of all the states, so again -- is this an issue that's uniquely SA and therefore some conspiracy of the govt?
Exit on the right in the direction of travel.
Re: The Economic News Thread
Only one more quarter to go and we'll be in recession in South Australia and most likely Australia. South Australia recorded the worst negative growth rate of -1.4% in the country. So much for our 'booming' economy. Obviously a result of the GFC but still a poor result for SA.
WA and Qld were the only states to record positive growth but only just, they should tend negative this comming quarter as well. Depressing times. I know of people getting laid of left right and centre in professional services over the last month or so. It is only going to get worse.
Story from adelaidenow:
WA and Qld were the only states to record positive growth but only just, they should tend negative this comming quarter as well. Depressing times. I know of people getting laid of left right and centre in professional services over the last month or so. It is only going to get worse.
Story from adelaidenow:
State economy on edge of recession
RUSSELL EMMERSON
March 04, 2009 10:50pm
THE global slowdown is threatening to send South Australia into recession.
Business, households and the Government spent $18.8 billion over the December quarter, a fall of 1.4 per cent from the previous period.
If the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports another fall in the March quarter, SA will technically be in recession.
The fall is tied to plummeting business confidence. The business sector spent $1.2 billion on machinery and equipment in the quarter - one-quarter less than the September quarter - and overall spending fell 1.7 per cent to $14.7 billion.
Business investment, typically a sign of the sector's confidence in future business levels, fell almost 14 per cent to $2.3 billion.
Treasurer Kevin Foley said the Government would look at how it would respond to the fall, but said he was "living and breathing the global financial crisis".
"This is a time for concern for government but it is time for a proportionate response," he said.
"It is very easy in politics to have a crack at what is happening now . . . but these are difficult times that require quality, sensible and cautious management by governments."
The same figures show government spending remained relatively flat, but government agencies cut their spending 24 per cent to $120 million.
SA households took advantage of the Federal Government's economic stimulus package by boosting spending to $11.2 billion - up 1.3 per cent on the previous quarter.
Entertainment and sport was a big winner, but spending in the hospitality sector dropped almost 5 per cent.
Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith said the results could not be blamed on the global financial crisis but showed the business sector had no confidence in the management of the state's economy.
Re: The Economic News Thread
As I posted in SSC: That is a nothing article.
As put by the Bureau of Stats:
State final demand
+ Exports of good and services
– Imports of good and services
+ Changes in inventories
+ net interstate trade
= Gross State Product
State Final Demand was published yesterday. GSP won't be published until November, because of the smaller states being prone to large statistical errors in a quarter-by-quarter measure.
As put by the Bureau of Stats:
State final demand
+ Exports of good and services
– Imports of good and services
+ Changes in inventories
+ net interstate trade
= Gross State Product
State Final Demand was published yesterday. GSP won't be published until November, because of the smaller states being prone to large statistical errors in a quarter-by-quarter measure.
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stumpjumper
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Re: The Economic News Thread
monotonehell the fact that it's at least Australia wide has made me think too. Either all governments are doing the same thing or my argument is wrong. I'm trying to find out more about the situation interstate, and overseas too.
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Prince George
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Re: The Economic News Thread
SJ, can we keep the housing prices / land policy talk in the threads that are already about them, and restrict this to what the implications are for the broader economy?
Re: The Economic News Thread
That sounds fair but keep in mind that our bubble prices and the economy are VERY tightly coupled, so the two subjects are very closely linked.Prince George wrote:SJ, can we keep the housing prices / land policy talk in the threads that are already about them, and restrict this to what the implications are for the broader economy?
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monotonehell
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Re: The Economic News Thread
To illustrate, this is how the whole mess in the US came about.muzzamo wrote:That sounds fair but keep in mind that our bubble prices and the economy are VERY tightly coupled, so the two subjects are very closely linked.
The economic crisis explained.
Exit on the right in the direction of travel.
Re: The Economic News Thread
Released today:
Dwelling Unit Commencements (quarterly, seasonally adjusted)
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Det ... enDocument
Dwelling Unit Commencements (quarterly, seasonally adjusted)
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Det ... enDocument
Code: Select all
NSW VIC QLD SA WA Aus
Dec07 7,257 11,158 11,875 2,686 5,730 40,544
Dec08 5,976 10,186 6,870 3,089 4,475 32,637
yoy% MY MATHS IS WRONG I'LL FIX IT LATER!
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