ozisnowman wrote:Dont think things here are as bad as the US? Why does the government put us into debt to fund the home owners grant
just so they can stop the housing market going into freefall? Australians not borrowing so much as there American
Counterparts? Wrong, this is clearly not the case as can be seen by the Governments and Big Banks response to
effectively giving people a 12 month delay on loan repayments (albeit with some penalties attached) also
to stop the housing market going into a freefall...
We can expect unemployment to rise.
We can expect borrowing money to become more difficult.
We can expect the home owners grant to cease at some stage.
We can expect interest rates to rise.
So you honestly dont think it will get bad?
Did i say it wasn't going to get bad? Of course i didn't.
Our economy it not as vulnerable to the US as it once was. We will not see the rate of foreclosure in Aust as is the case in the US. Lending criteria, while more relaxed than now, certainly was much more stringent than the US around the sub prime collapse. NINJA (no income no job no assets) loans also played a major part in the collapse of the market. Interest rates are widely tipped to fall even further by years end and remain that way for some time. As inflation, employment, house prices all balance then we will see steady increases, but not see the same interest rates of 7% + for quite some time.
It's all a vicious mix in the US, high unemployment, over supply of the housing market, high vacancy rates, corporate greed and recklessness, coming off years of strong gains on the stock market etc etc... To a degree some of these trends have occured in Aust, but the main factors in our market is the strong banking sector, low vacany rate among rentals, higher rental yields, strong outlook in terms of the growing China and Indian economies.
Giving home owners a 12 month grace in crisis is a brilliant move. That is not a sign of weakness, it's empathy at it's best, with outcomes that benefit the banks and owner occupier. By taking away people homes, you are only adding fuel to the fire. Giving home owners a chance to get back on their feet can only be seen as a good thing for the economy and housing market.
There is no doubt we are in tough times, but will we see the same as the US housing market? No way, corrections are already occuring all over the country, but we are seeing modest drops in the house prices here in Adelaide. We still have the cheapest house prices in the mainland, enormous amounts of growth in all aspects inc, population, jobs, economic and skilled workers.
Warren Buffett built his wealth on basic and meticulous methods. It's when people don't understand that econmies become blurred..
"Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken."