The Economic News Thread

[Will]

From News.com

South Australia 'heading for zero unemployment'
From: AdelaideNow December 02, 2009 1:15AM

SA is expected to have both new work in mining and defence and vacancies created by a surge in retirements. Source: AFP


DEMAND for workers will outstrip supply from 2012, when one-third of South Australia's workforce reaches retirement age, new research reveals.

But the demand will also provide a chance for South Australia to come close to eliminating unemployment.

The state is expected to have 134,000 jobs up for grabs, both new work in mining and defence and vacancies created by a surge in retirements in the health, education, administration and service sectors.

Baby boomers are expected to retire at the same time as older workers, who suffered recent superannuation losses and stayed in the workforce. New research published through the University of Adelaide's Australian Institute for Social Research reveals about one-third of the state's workforce of 788,900 people will be at the retirement age of 55, or older, in 2012-13.


Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related CoverageSouth Australia 'heading for zero unemployment'
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Courier Mail, 2 Oct 2009End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

Executive director Dr John Spoehr said the surge in retirements would coincide with a period of strong economic growth and there would be significant skills shortages if this were not addressed now.

"Then we do have a situation where the demand for labour is set to significantly outstrip supply," he said.

Dr Spoehr said employers needed to act quickly to reverse the effects of the global financial crisis, when jobs were cut or staffing freezes implemented.

"Now they've got to suddenly come to terms with coming to a substantial period of growth.

"It's very important to start trying now and create more apprenticeship and traineeship opportunities."

He said workers contemplating retirement would need encouragement to stay in the workforce to meet the shortfall while younger workers were trained.

Workers needed better childcare support and workforce development strategies were also required, he said. "The good news is there's no real excuse for us not achieving the closest thing to full employment since the immediate post-war period," he said.

ACH Group's north region residential service manager Jo Boylan said it developed specialised training programs for new staff two years ago so it could avoid future skills shortages in the aged-care industry.

She said the group had offered traineeships to several retrenched workers as part of its staffing plan.

"We've put a large amount of training into staff from overseas and acknowledging that these are the changes that are coming into our industry," she said.

[Hooligan]

zero unemployment will never be acheived

[skyliner]

The Hooligan is right, zero unemployment does not happen. By contrast, QLD's unemployment rate is the worst in the nation - the 'land of milk and honey' and not improving. (Talking about population caps now). It's great to see SA doing well in this way however and with the mining and defence development we have the jobs coming up.

SA - STATE ON THE MOVE

[Will]

From the Advertiser

South Australia leads nation in key economic growth

CHRISTOPHER RUSSELL
December 17, 2009 12:01am


FOR the third quarter in a row, South Australia has led the nation in a key measure of economic growth and helped the country keep its books in the black.

The national economy only just kept its head above water in the September quarter, recording a meagre 0.2 per cent growth in gross domestic product, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday.

Contributing to the growth was an estimated $20.5 billion spent in SA in the quarter, seasonally adjusted, a 1.9 per cent increase on the previous quarter.

Only NSW, at 1.3 per cent growth, was also in positive territory with all other states recording a fall according to the ABS's state final demand figures, a key component of GDP.

A spokesman for Treasurer Kevin Foley said the result was "encouraging" but he cautioned "there is some way to go yet".

The Treasurer was concerned by a 9 per cent fall to $2.2 billion in the export of goods overseas.

"(This) remains a cause for concern and one which is largely beyond our control," the spokesman said. "That sector depends on economic conditions in our key export markets improving."

Opposition Treasury spokesman Steven Griffiths blamed high state taxes for forcing exporters into an uncompetitive position.

"Accordingly, SA has the lowest proportion of exporting firms of any mainland state," he said.

While exports slumped, SA recorded growth in government and household consumption - up 0.8 and 0.6 per cent respectively - and in private capital expenditure, up 8.2 per cent to $4.3 billion.

A more detailed picture of the state's economy will emerge today with the ABS publishing gross state product data for 2008-09.

[AtD]

Just to be pedantic, they're quoting state final demand and not gross state product growth. Demand is just one part of the GDP/GSP equation.

The full financial year state accounts come out today.

[AtD]

Hot off the press:

State Accounts are out. They show that SA, Tas and ACT all had above average economic growth during the GFC
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected] ... num=&view=

Gross State Product 2008-09

Code: Select all

AUS 1.1
=======
NSW 0.2
Vic 0.8
QLD 0.3
SA  1.4
WA  0.7
Tas 1.4
NT  0.4
ACT 1.4

The per capita story shows an even greater disparity. The so called "boom" states of QLD and WA suffered badly during the crisis.

Gross State product per captia, chain volume (ie real), 2008-09

[Wayno]

thanks Atd, i'm not sure how to react to the stats. Was our avoiding the GFC as a result of good economic management? or luck of timing with our mix of industries (esp not having a large local financial base)?

[monotonehell]

thanks Atd, i'm not sure how to react to the stats. Was our avoiding the GFC as a result of good economic management? or luck of timing with our mix of industries (esp not having a large local financial base)?

Politicians have almost no influence over the economy. So probably the second.

[AtD]

thanks Atd, i'm not sure how to react to the stats. Was our avoiding the GFC as a result of good economic management? or luck of timing with our mix of industries (esp not having a large local financial base)?

Politicians have almost no influence over the economy. So probably the second.

mono: I wouldn't go that far. Workplace relations can have a huge impact on business margins.

I would agree that there is an element of good fortune and our industry mix helped. Adelaide is a lot less susceptible to the whims and mood swings of the ASX than Perth or Brisbane. But if anything, SA ended up in front using the Steven Bradbury method.

[rhino]

SA ended up in front using the Steven Bradbury method.

And a very good method it is too, unfortunately not one that can be relied upon, however!

[Wayno]

Page 6 of today's Weekend Australian states there will be a write up on South Australia in the Australian this Monday (Dec 21). Not sure if it will be multi-page or just one article.

Look for this title "Where South Australia stands in the new order". In case anyone's interested, this weekends paper had an article focused on Victoria. I see lots of imminent similarities with ourselves.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politic ... 5811891021

VICTORIA has leapt ahead of all the non-resource states, as well as Queensland, as the former rust-belt state reaps the rewards of more than 15 years' of economic reform.

The state is taking advantage of its sputtering northern neighbours in attracting new business investment and population and housing growth.

Victoria's solid balance sheet and reputation as a good place to do business helped it pull off the largest public-private partnership in the world since the financial crisis -- a $3.5 billion desalination plant. The state government has vowed to continue its aggressive approach to securing investment, expanding its network of foreign offices and luring projects away from the other states.

It remains almost obsessively focused on the economy, with the spectre of the Cain/Kirner economic meltdown of the 1990s seemingly ever-present in its thinking.

The against-the-odds vibrancy of the Victorian economy was confirmed in the latest jobs figures, in which the state posted the largest rise of any.

Much of Victoria's success in riding out the financial crisis is down to the resilience of the residential housing construction sector. Coupled with government investment in major infrastructure work, this has helped the state shrug off its large exposure to manufacturing and the drought-ravaged agricultural sector.

Government projects in water and transport have picked up some of the slack as private sector capital investment slowed to a trickle at the height of the crisis and is yet to rebound.

Commentators and industry figures put the state's prosperity down to a combination of good luck and good management.

Stung by a surge in population growth in recent years, Victoria had already drafted plans for major water and transport projects and was rolling out school upgrades and road and stadium projects when the crisis hit, according to Treasurer John Lenders. "Suddenly, when the commonwealth and the rest of the world wanted to start to accelerate infrastructure there were a number of things we could do immediately," he said.

Leading economist Saul Eslake said Victoria was also reaping the rewards of 16 years' of stable pro-business government, first under the Kennett Liberal government and then under the ALP.

"Victoria is perceived as an easier place to do business than NSW," he said. "(It) actually welcomes economic growth, whereas the Carr government didn't."

Mr Eslake said the state also secured a disproportionately large share of the Rudd government's infrastructure spending. Mr Lenders credited investing in skills, the big infrastructure spend and keeping taxes low with saving the state from greater pain. "Businesses know that Victoria is serious about being lean and efficient. Our reputation is strong in the business community."

He also credited unions and employers for a constructive workplace culture.

While growth expectations of about 3 per cent a year are solid rather than spectacular, Victoria has been the only state other than Western Australia to avoid posting a deficit and is now expecting surpluses for the three years after the current financial year.

Forecast net debt levels remain relatively low in comparison to gross state product.

On Monday, where South Australia stands in the new order

[Wayno]

This is the Dec 21st article i refer to in my post above. Not a multi-page spread as i first thought - still interesting reading though:

From The Australian

Foley looks to bold new era

KEVIN Foley has declared it is time for South Australia to move on from industries the state has traditionally relied on for its economic growth and embrace a new world of defence, mining and renewable energy development.

The nation's longest-serving treasurer does not shy away from an unprecedented decline within industries that have traditionally been the backbone of the South Australian economy, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and manufacturing.

That the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, released last week, show employment within those once key industries is the lowest it has been in 25 years does not particularly faze the outspoken Deputy Premier, who has been Treasurer in the two-term Rann Labor government since 2002.

Mr Foley, whose government is seeking another four-year term at the polls on March 20, insists the state is set to enter a new golden era after finally shaking off the long-lasting effects of the radical Hawke-Keating economic reforms between 1983 and 1991, which saw an end to a traditional Labor reliance on tariffs to protect industry and jobs.

He points to $9 billion in current defence contracts alone, excluding the massive Future Submarine and the $8bn Air Warfare Destroyer projects, almost $30bn of minerals and energy projects and an ambitious plan to attract $6bn in green energy investment.

"This is a vindication for the Hawke-Keating years when no state suffered more brutally from economic reform than South Australia, and no state will have benefited greater from this reform than South Australia,'' Mr Foley told The Australian.

"No state suffered more brutally due to macro- and micro-economic reforms during the 80s and 90s in this country. But no state has performed better and been a greater recipient of the benefits of restructuring in South Australia, in my view. "I actually think the reforms of tariffs and competition policy have been the saviour of this state.''

There was more good news for the state's economy last week with ABS economic growth figures showing South Australia was among the best-performing of the states, driven by strong private business investment.

The positive economic growth was tempered by declines in the finance and insurance services, manufacturing, and construction industries, something the state Liberal opposition attributes to Mr Foley and Premier Mike Rann turning South Australia into the highest-taxed state in the country.

"The draconian tax laws have forced SA industries who want to produce and export their products to struggle to survive in an uncompetitive position compared to other mainland states,'' said opposition economic development spokesman Martin Hamilton-Smith. But Mr Foley has his eye on the horizon and the lure of riches to be found in expanding on the burgeoning mining, defence and renewable energy sectors.

He believes the smaller education and service sectors can help balance the economic mix and allow South Australia to "move on from industries of the past''.

"We will have a really balanced economy, we'll have a strong mining sector, still a very strong but very different manufacturing sector, a very strong agriculture sector, service and education sector and a small but growing tourism sector.''

[AtD]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 792464.htm

Demand at record level for SA unis

South Australian universities are facing record demand for places.

Students across the state are getting their offers for 2010.

Demand for places at Flinders University is up 15 per cent this year.

Deputy Vice Chancellor Professor Andrew Parkin says it means some courses are now harder to get into.

"The demand is very strong particularly in our health-related areas," he said.

"Medicine in particular, we have an undergraduate medicine intake for the first time in many years at Flinders.

"But across health sciences in general, midwifery, paramedics and so on. In education and teachers training and very hearteningly in some of our generalist degrees like the bachelor of arts bachelor of science."

Adelaide University says it has increased offers by 26 per cent since 2005.

Deputy Vice Chancellor Professor Fred McDougall says the university is also focused on SA's growing need for health professionals.

"We certainly have increased the number of offers to medicine, for example, because we're very conscious of the workforce needs in health, so medicine, nursing and related areas are areas that we've made a conscious effort to try and expand the number of offers and places we're able to accommodate," he said.

[rhino]

From today's Adelaide Now:

Abbott vows to take control of River Murray
LAUREN NOVAK, POLITICAL REPORTER
January 14, 2010 11:46pm

TONY Abbott will make the environment a key battleground for the next election, with a plan to take control of the Murray-Darling Basin.
The Liberal leader is proposing a Commonwealth takeover, which was first proposed by the Howard government.
"As John Howard frequently observed, rivers don't acknowledge state borders," Mr Abbott told the Sydney Institute last night, in his first major speech as leader.
"If there is one environmental planning issue crying out for a national rather than a state-by-state approach, it's management of a catchment extending across Queensland, NSW and Victoria on which South Australia is critically dependant."
the states are unwilling to hand control of the river system to the Commonwealth, Mr Abbott, as prime minister, would put it to the people at a referendum in 2013, around the time of a federal election.
"It should not have taken more than 100 years to sort out the management of Australia's largest river system," Mr Abbott said.
"Another term of parliament should not pass without this matter being substantially resolved."
Meanwhile, NSW Water Resources Minister Phil Costa has declared South Australia will receive less than 100 gigalitres from recent floodwaters .
"As important as that Lower Lakes system is, we've got our own families and communities to look after," he said.
SA Water Security Minister Karlene Maywald yesterday ruled out putting a figure on how much water the State Government was lobbying for or might receive, saying it would be irresponsible to "speculate". - with Sandra O'Malley




This scares me. A referendum on whether the upstream, populous, eastern states should hand over control of water they currently use for their own benefit, to the federal government, who will allow them to use less of it? Only South Australia will vote for this, the eastern states will vote against it. If he really thinks the Murray should be controlled by a Federal body, he wouldn't be taking it to a referendum. It's bad news for SA, IMHO.

[skyliner]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 792464.htm

Demand at record level for SA unis

South Australian universities are facing record demand for places.

Students across the state are getting their offers for 2010.

Demand for places at Flinders University is up 15 per cent this year.

Deputy Vice Chancellor Professor Andrew Parkin says it means some courses are now harder to get into.

"The demand is very strong particularly in our health-related areas," he said.

"Medicine in particular, we have an undergraduate medicine intake for the first time in many years at Flinders.

"But across health sciences in general, midwifery, paramedics and so on. In education and teachers training and very hearteningly in some of our generalist degrees like the bachelor of arts bachelor of science."

Adelaide University says it has increased offers by 26 per cent since 2005.

Deputy Vice Chancellor Professor Fred McDougall says the university is also focused on SA's growing need for health professionals.

"We certainly have increased the number of offers to medicine, for example, because we're very conscious of the workforce needs in health, so medicine, nursing and related areas are areas that we've made a conscious effort to try and expand the number of offers and places we're able to accommodate," he said.

Could be partly a function of the problems with Indians/racism against them in Melbourne too.

SA - STATE ON THE MOVE