Sensational-Adelaide.com

Has the result of the next South Australian election already been determined?

The re-election prospects of the first term Marshall Liberal Government have been dealt a major blow, after it was defeated on a bill in Parliament.

No, it's not contentious land tax changes, which have caused all sorts of pain for Premier Steven Marshall.

Rather, Labor and crossbenchers in the state's Upper House teamed up to defeat a change to the state's constitution, which would have reinstated a so-called "fairness clause".

South Australians are still more than two years from going to the polls to pass judgement on Mr Marshall's first term, but the field of play is already being set.

Not by voters, nor political parties, but by three people sitting around a table drawing lines on a map.

The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission of SA is starting to examine the borders of seats in State Parliament, and if history is anything to go by, its final decision will have a major impact on who will be in the top job at the end of March 2022.

The Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry, the Surveyor-General Michael Burdett and the Honourable Justice Trish Kelly will spend the next year coming to grips with new seat boundary rules they need to follow.

It is an independent body, following rules set by the state's politicians, who often have nakedly political motivations.

Until now, the commission has had to contend with the "fairness clause", a rule designed to ensure the party that wins the most votes goes on to win the most seats.

No other state or territory has anything like it, and previous boundaries commissions have struggled with putting its lofty goal into practice.

The commission radically redrew boundaries to satisfy the clause before last year's election, shunting several Labor-held seats into Liberal territory.

One third of voters found themselves in new seats, and the commission met the requirements of the fairness clause by allowing the population of some seats to vary by as much as 10 per cent from the average.

That helped Steven Marshall win the election, despite the fact that the Liberal Party actually went significantly backwards on first preference votes.

Labor was outraged at the redistribution, which meant that the vote of someone in the electorate of Flinders was worth 25 per cent more than the vote of someone in Elizabeth.

The former government scrapped the fairness clause on the last sitting day of the former parliament, and the Liberal Party has been trying to bring it back.

Following yesterday's vote, it seems the fairness clause will be consigned to the dustbin.

That means another major redraw of seat boundaries is on the cards.

Without needing to contort seats to satisfy the rules, there is less reason for the population of seats to vary as much as they currently do.

That's a point we can expect to see the ALP argue forcefully.

Labor will likely ask the commission to in effect roll back some of the changes made before the last election.

In other words, to produce an electoral map more favourable to Labor.

The party will argue the most important principle to follow is that each person's vote should have the same value.

There are other factors influencing seat borders, including that "communities of interest" are reflected in State Parliament, and that seats are of sensible shapes.

Whatever decision is made about seat boundaries, the deliberations of those three independent public servants will have a major impact on the campaign we see in 2022.

rev wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:23 am

On 5AA right now, the minister is saying by 2022 they will bring power bills down by $300 annually.
Apparently the interconnector with NSW is meant to bring prices down.

2022...

The building industry coincidentally is saying thatall new homes should be built with solar panels. I say go further, the gov should pay for solar and battery storage on every existing home, and subsidise solar on new builds.
The money people save on power bills, will be spent elsewhere, generating more tax revenue. More money spent im shops means shops and businesses are busier means they can put on more staff, means more tax revenue.

Of course, if they actually gave a toss about bringing down the cost of living for the majority, while they sit in their mansions on the back of hard working tax payers.

Jaymz wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:54 pm

rev wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:23 am

On 5AA right now, the minister is saying by 2022 they will bring power bills down by $300 annually.
Apparently the interconnector with NSW is meant to bring prices down.

2022...

The building industry coincidentally is saying thatall new homes should be built with solar panels. I say go further, the gov should pay for solar and battery storage on every existing home, and subsidise solar on new builds.
The money people save on power bills, will be spent elsewhere, generating more tax revenue. More money spent im shops means shops and businesses are busier means they can put on more staff, means more tax revenue.

Of course, if they actually gave a toss about bringing down the cost of living for the majority, while they sit in their mansions on the back of hard working tax payers.

Sounds extreme!! But I like that.

Here's my extreme view. Totally abolish payroll tax in SA. Borrow the $200 million in lost revenue for a few years, see what happens. Take a punt.

rev wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:27 am

Here's another thought, since our politicians are sleeping.
China has stopped taking our recyclable trash haven't they? That's why we have a huge stockpile of it around the Port and other places.
Recycling is going to continue to be a thing, and a growing industry.
Why not create a recycling precinct north of Adelaide, and bring in the nations recyclables here, where they are then turned into other products which in turn are then sold back?
Could then take the opportunity to move the Wingfield dump and those recycling centres out north, and clean up that land around Wingfield.
After all they want to put housing on the former salt lakes, who'd buy a house there with your sunset view being a growing rubbish dump?
They could once it's cleaned up fill it with industrial lots, warehouses and such, even big green open spaces..

SBD wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:56 am

rev wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:27 am

Here's another thought, since our politicians are sleeping.
China has stopped taking our recyclable trash haven't they? That's why we have a huge stockpile of it around the Port and other places.
Recycling is going to continue to be a thing, and a growing industry.
Why not create a recycling precinct north of Adelaide, and bring in the nations recyclables here, where they are then turned into other products which in turn are then sold back?
Could then take the opportunity to move the Wingfield dump and those recycling centres out north, and clean up that land around Wingfield.
After all they want to put housing on the former salt lakes, who'd buy a house there with your sunset view being a growing rubbish dump?
They could once it's cleaned up fill it with industrial lots, warehouses and such, even big green open spaces..

My understanding is that the large stockpile of theoretical recyclables is due to a Victorian company (SKM) having gone bust. It used a different process to the SA companies, that involved compressing the comingled recyclables tightly before transportation and sorting. The SA company that has inherited the problem does not presently have the infrastructure and process in place to be able to handle compressed (and putrefying) comingled waste, so they have received permission to "store" (indefinitely) it as landfill in the belief that "one day" they might have the tools and technology to reprocess it.

NAWMA and Visy are keeping up with the stream of SA recyclables, despite SKM having left the market, but don't have the capacity to address the SKM backlog at presnet.

rev wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:15 pm

SBD wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:56 am

rev wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:27 am

Here's another thought, since our politicians are sleeping.
China has stopped taking our recyclable trash haven't they? That's why we have a huge stockpile of it around the Port and other places.
Recycling is going to continue to be a thing, and a growing industry.
Why not create a recycling precinct north of Adelaide, and bring in the nations recyclables here, where they are then turned into other products which in turn are then sold back?
Could then take the opportunity to move the Wingfield dump and those recycling centres out north, and clean up that land around Wingfield.
After all they want to put housing on the former salt lakes, who'd buy a house there with your sunset view being a growing rubbish dump?
They could once it's cleaned up fill it with industrial lots, warehouses and such, even big green open spaces..

My understanding is that the large stockpile of theoretical recyclables is due to a Victorian company (SKM) having gone bust. It used a different process to the SA companies, that involved compressing the comingled recyclables tightly before transportation and sorting. The SA company that has inherited the problem does not presently have the infrastructure and process in place to be able to handle compressed (and putrefying) comingled waste, so they have received permission to "store" (indefinitely) it as landfill in the belief that "one day" they might have the tools and technology to reprocess it.

NAWMA and Visy are keeping up with the stream of SA recyclables, despite SKM having left the market, but don't have the capacity to address the SKM backlog at presnet.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-10/ ... ss/9243184

Yeh, but China also banned imports of our trash and recyclables.
It might not be a glamour industry, but becoming the recycling centre of Australia would create a lot of jobs, for a long long time. And this state desperately needs jobs.
It's garbage, what, some other state going to start a fight over who takes the nations trash?

SBD wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:38 pm

What we need is more of the value-add work that makes the new stuff out of the sorted waste streams, or extracts the metals etc from e-waste.

SRW wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:43 pm

I think we've all learned not to put too much stock in opinion polls, but for what it's worth, a poll out today shows the Liberals badly trailing Labor and Malinauskas looking pretty good against Marshall two years on from the election. Shonky polls and an election still two years away notwithstanding, it gives some stock to the anecdotal impression I've gained from this forum and IRL that many feel the state is worse off under this government.

Goodsy wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:57 pm

SRW wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:43 pm

I think we've all learned not to put too much stock in opinion polls, but for what it's worth, a poll out today shows the Liberals badly trailing Labor and Malinauskas looking pretty good against Marshall two years on from the election. Shonky polls and an election still two years away notwithstanding, it gives some stock to the anecdotal impression I've gained from this forum and IRL that many feel the state is worse off under this government.

keep in mind that Labor technically won the last election and actually increased their TPP from the election before. They lost on redistribution

Waewick wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:59 am

We will always be a largely Labor State.

We are a low income, low socioeconomic area surrounded by sparsely inhabited regional areas.

To Labors credit they know that hence the underdevelopment of our regional areas, who traditionally don't vote Labor.

Its worse on a Federal level because we are largely safe seats, meaning we will be ignored further on a national level.


20 years of decline is starting to bite, but hopefully these defence contracts come to fruition and drive population growth and sone economic prosperity.