SA Economy

[Splashmo]

Saw this in the latest federal infrastructure plan - seems like a fairly dire prediction if you want a big Adelaide or one that at least tries to keep up with the other major cities. The plan does talk about encouraging greater growth in the smaller cities while keeping a cap on things in the big four.

http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/p ... e_Plan.pdf

[Wayno]

Saw this in the latest federal infrastructure plan - seems like a fairly dire prediction if you want a big Adelaide or one that at least tries to keep up with the other major cities. The plan does talk about encouraging greater growth in the smaller cities while keeping a cap on things in the big four.

Contributing to SAs lower predicted population growth is our current age profile (census 2014). I'd like to see a 2060 predicted age profile. That would tell a better story. For example, what matters more than overall population is the ratio of young -vs- working age -vs- aged populations.

sa-age-profile-2014.jpg (69 KiB) Viewed 3853 times

Adelaide's median age is ~41 while rest of Australia is ~37. By 2060 nearly all people currently aged ~40 will have passed. In regional SA we'll see a drastic reduction in older population, and also shrinkage in younger population. Victor Harbor is a top 5 post code with the oldest retired populations, Australia-wide.

The only thing that will trigger a larger SA population is more industry & jobs.

[phenom]

Saw this in the latest federal infrastructure plan - seems like a fairly dire prediction if you want a big Adelaide or one that at least tries to keep up with the other major cities. The plan does talk about encouraging greater growth in the smaller cities while keeping a cap on things in the big four.

Those projections are probably a victim of timing, especially in regards to WA. Thanks to exceptionally poor (or deliberately obfuscated) referencing by Infrastructure Australia they don't mention which ABS series they have used. The general thing is to use Series B which is seen as a 'mid range' selection but there are around 79 or so standard sets of projections published by the ABS.

Basically if you look at the plunging net interstate migration in WA (has now gone negative - that is, more interstate people leaving than coming) and net overseas migration (has plunged from around 15,000 per quarter to 2,500 per quarter) there is no way the 'mid range' projections for WA will hold up.

Net overseas migration at the national level has also been reducing rapidly in the last year or two. So while the general pattern of the 'big four' outgrowing Adelaide is still pretty much a given I wouldn't expect the gap to grow at the rate as projected in those graphs.

[thecityguy]

That wa prediction is laughable


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[Waewick]

That wa prediction is laughable


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why?

[thecityguy]

That wa prediction is laughable


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why?

Everything I've read of late hasn't been as optimistic about WA as these stats. Everything from interstate migration, to the economy in general.


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[BradJC]

The chart predicts ~3.2-3.3 million by 2031 for Perth. This would require a growth rate of ~3.2% each year for the next 15 years. Not going to happen.

[claybro]

The chart predicts ~3.2-3.3 million by 2031 for Perth. This would require a growth rate of ~3.2% each year for the next 15 years. Not going to happen.

guys, don't worry too much about WA. Despite the worst mining crash in living memory, the domestic economy is still bubbling along. Housing has dropped but from a completely unrealistic level (try Sydney prices). The local coffee shop is still able to fist me $4.80 for a cup. Eating out requires a small mortgage and a pint at the pub is still $11.00. Unemployment is still in the mid range by national figures, and even at current (slower) growth rate, Perths population will comfortably reach around 2.9 MIL in 15 years. And the state government has infrastructure plans in place to accommodate this. You would all be better focusing on SA/Adelaide's plans for reaching 1.7 MIL.(really, is that it?) Aside from MAYBE finishing the N/S motorway, and MAYBE electrifying Gawler and OH train, I am not sure there is anything else much in the imagination of the state government over there to even cope with this lazy extra 400000 new residents. Come on guys, stop looking over your shoulder at the other states and THINK BIGGER or people like me and my peers will continue to leave.

[Norman]

Have you read the integrated transport and land use plan? There are rail extensions to Aldinga (where the land has now been secured), Roseworthy and Gawler East. There are trams radiating through the inner metro area. There is development legislation going through parliament which will encourage growth and reduce development red tape for our main street boulevards.

Sure, the government needs to grow some, stop playing politics and start planning these things into the budget, but the plans are there. I'm not sure how much extra infrastructure we need apart from that what has already been mentioned in those plans, especially as more people start to work from home and place less of a drain on existing infrastructure.

What other infrastructure would you like to see?

[Goodsy]

Have you read the integrated transport and land use plan? There are rail extensions to Aldinga (where the land has now been secured), Roseworthy and Gawler East. There are trams radiating through the inner metro area. There is development legislation going through parliament which will encourage growth and reduce development red tape for our main street boulevards.

Sure, the government needs to grow some, stop playing politics and start planning these things into the budget, but the plans are there. I'm not sure how much extra infrastructure we need apart from that what has already been mentioned in those plans, especially as more people start to work from home and place less of a drain on existing infrastructure.

What other infrastructure would you like to see?

Long term plans for regional passanger rail

[Norman]

Long term plans for regional passanger rail

Why? For who? And where to?

Unfortunately most of the regional populations are declining with the demise of manufacturing. There are also huge costs involved with regional rail. New South Wales and Victoria boast huge regional populations, especially around Newcastle, Wollongong, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo to sustain a proper regional train network, South Australia does not have any major towns outside Adelaide.

Let's rather focus on getting a more integrated regional bus system and upgrading our airports. The move to upgrade Kingscote Airport will be interesting in terms of how much extra tourism there will be from Melbourne and Sydney.

[claybro]

Have you read the integrated transport and land use plan? There are rail extensions to Aldinga (where the land has now been secured), Roseworthy and Gawler East. There are trams radiating through the inner metro area. There is development legislation going through parliament which will encourage growth and reduce development red tape for our main street boulevards.

Sure, the government needs to grow some, stop playing politics and start planning these things into the budget, but the plans are there. I'm not sure how much extra infrastructure we need apart from that what has already been mentioned in those plans, especially as more people start to work from home and place less of a drain on existing infrastructure.

What other infrastructure would you like to see?

Integrated transport and land use plan you say. How many times will that change? Will any of it actually see the light of day? What are the plans to fund it?
Infrastructure I would like to see in Adelaide...
A connection from the SE Freeway to the N/S motorway by any of the various routes, tunnels whatever already discussed ad nauseum.
A proper inner non stop ring route maybe based on Park Terrace etc.
A proper non stop outer ring route.
All metro rail electrified including the hills line.
Extension of Tonsley to Flinders uni and a transport bus interchange for Flagstaff Hill area feeding in to this. (not sure but this may already be happening-it has changed so many times I am confused)
An underground city loop to stop the wasteful dead end Adelaide Station.
Proper integrated train stations...ie Oaklands station actually connected to Marion Centre, Woodlands to Castle Plaza ,etc
Completion of city tram loop and extensions to inner suburbs including Airport.
Upgrade of Memorial drive to international standard indoor centre for basketball etc.

These may all sound light years away. But remember Perth and Brisbane were the same size as Adelaide 30-40 years ago, and now all have these very same projects completed or U/C. ...Mining royalties you say for WA and QLD...not only. Just more of a willingness to progress.

[rev]

So GM/Holden and Punch have announced that the proposal by Punch to take over the Elizabeth plant has been assessed as not being viable and therefore wont go ahead.

Neither GM/Holden nor Punch are revealing the details of the proposal or the assessment because they signed a non disclosure agreement.

How pitiful. Thousands of jobs at stake not just in this state but across the country, and our governments allow these global corporations to do as they please.
And they told us globalization and free trade would be good for Australia..they just didn't tell you by Australia they meant the corporations.

Weatherill is still going to fly out to Detroit to meet with the bosses of GM. Not sure why since they obviously don't want to pass the factory on to anyone else to keep making cars here.

What happened with the defense contract for the armored vehicles for the army? It was between us and Geelong wasn't it? And Elizabeth was one site the state government said could be used to build them..Why aren't they pushing that still?(if it hasn't already been awarded to someone else)

[claybro]

Rev, I get your anti globalisation rant...I share some of the concerns...however, globalisation is not the reason Holdens are closing. It is that we don't want to pay $60000 for a commodore and only have 3 models to choose from. Oh...and car production workers should not have been on 70k per year.
The fact that Holden pick and choose what happens to the Elizabeth plant is also nothing to do with globalisation, but that the government blindly handed over millions in handouts, without any guarantee about what would happen to the plant when they upped stumps. Why is Jay even talking to GM...is he asking for our money back? Why cant the Fed and State Gov take over the facility and build something there? We have paid for it many times over.
Not sure if you are aware also, that the press here in Perth are cock a hoop about more share of naval work coming to Perth instead of Adelaide in the new defence paper. What is Christopher Pain (sorry meant PYne) doing for his home state. Silver spoon posh Sydneysider Malcolm does not give a flying fig about Adelaide, but surely Christopher could get in his ear...
No...instead of just blaming globalisation Rev, I think we need to look closer to home, get enraged and start sticking up for SA. Our politicians are woeful..and this is coming from someone who lives in the West, but hates to see where my home state is headed.

[rev]

There's multiple reasons why, but 4bGlobalization is the primary and overwhelming reason car manufacturing in this country is coming to an end.

Through free trade agreements, which are a key part of globalization, the car market has been flooded with cheap imports.
They can't compete against the cheap imports.
So why would they keep making cars here, when they can make them overseas and then ship them to Australia for less then it would cost to make here?

Our "way of life" has been drastically altered by globalization.
Manufacturing has been decimated, with tens of thousands of jobs lost to Asia as corporations moved manufacturing plants to the cheap labor markets.
The "new industry" or jobs, is in offices and sitting behind desks and that sort of thing. Why do you need a large family sedan driving through city peak hour traffic, to park in a tight, cramped multi storey car park? You don't.

But you have an alternative. Small/medium sized foreign imports that are cheap.
Cheap to buy, cheaper to run.

Especially when the price of oil went up..and up and up.

Your tradies and what not will go for the big 4wd setup. Where are the majority made? Asia.
From your Hilux to your Triton to your Isuzu and Navara.
Even the Holden Rodeo is a rebadged Isuzu made in Japan. Not sure where the Ranger and Colorado are made.

The pressures globalization has put on Australia have impacted our spending and buying habits and lifestyle choices.
Buying a car is a lifestyle choice, in that you aren't going to go out and buy a utility unless you really need one, or a van unless you need one, for work.

GM Holden could have lifted it's game earlier. But when it did, it did so with sub-par imported models rebadged as Holden XYZ.
4WD and camping is a big thing in Australia. What's Holdens best offering over the years? The Jackaroo? Compared to a Landcruiser or Pajero..?
Holden should have nailed that market long ago.
Similar with the small car market.
This will sound racist, but with the increase in migration from Asia and other places, where large family sedans aren't common or the norm, Holden should have done it's research years ago, and come up with a vehicle range that would appeal to these people. They didn't. And what they imported and rebadged was and is shit.

However, take away the free trade agreements, take away the lowering of tarrifs on foreign imported vehicles, and where would you get your small/medium Hyundai, Toyota etc?
You probably wouldn't. Because they'd be more expensive so less people would be inclined to buy them, therefore manufacturers would ship less of them to Australia.

And the reason there isn't a great variety or range is because the market is small.
This comes back to management and GM head office with exports.
About the only imported make in Australia that I've never more then one advertisment for, is that Ssangyong make or however it's spelt.
Everything else has had multiple advertising campaigns. From Great Wall to Skoda.