SA State Election 2022

[ghs]

Coming into the federal and state elections it's looking more and more likely that we will see a labor government at federal level and a liberal
government here in South Australia. Surely under this scenario, South Australia will get very little support from the federal government. Labor
doesn't like to spend on defence. Final nail in the coffin for SA.

I think there's more chance of a Liberal win at the state election than people think, but Labor is definitely ahead in polling. What leads you to this conclusion?

Labor were ahead in the polling at federal level in 2019 and how did they end up going ?

[Nort]

Coming into the federal and state elections it's looking more and more likely that we will see a labor government at federal level and a liberal
government here in South Australia. Surely under this scenario, South Australia will get very little support from the federal government. Labor
doesn't like to spend on defence. Final nail in the coffin for SA.

I think there's more chance of a Liberal win at the state election than people think, but Labor is definitely ahead in polling. What leads you to this conclusion?

Labor were ahead in the polling at federal level in 2019 and how did they end up going ?

How does that lead to you thinking the likely outcome is a Federal Labor and State Liberal win?

[A-Town]

I've been away from Adelaide for only a few days and I have to say i'm very disappointed to see some of the election placards placed around the city since then.... Steven Marshalls face imposed on a rat, or the name Marshall replacing a cigarette brand (Marlboro). Also very controversial for a party leader to put up posters of themselves in a seat they're not even contesting. Here's hoping the S.A public are smarter than these gutter politics.

The Liberals tried to ban election posters and were supported by the Greens, but Labor blocked the proposal.

[HiTouch]

Let's be honest, a lot of it is about appearance over policies these days.
Mali is a hunk compared to Marshall. I can imagine a heap of 50yo ladies wanting him appearing on their 7news Primetime.

[SBD]

Let's be honest, a lot of it is about appearance over policies these days.
Mali is a hunk compared to Marshall. I can imagine a heap of 50yo ladies wanting him appearing on their 7news Primetime.

Seriously?

Do you mean that Croydon is full of shallow politically naive middle aged women? Or do mean that the whole metro area is full of them, but smart enough that when they see a picture of Peter Malinauskas on a stobie pole, they will vote for Lee Odenwalder or Blair Boyer or whever the local ALP candidate is, despite them not having been mentioned on teh Malinauskas poster, and he isn't on their ballot paper?

Or if I look more carefully, will I discover there are only Malinauskas posters in electorates where a donkey vote favours the ALP candidate and the Malinauskas posters are there to deliberately confuse people?

[rev]

I've been away from Adelaide for only a few days and I have to say i'm very disappointed to see some of the election placards placed around the city since then.... Steven Marshalls face imposed on a rat, or the name Marshall replacing a cigarette brand (Marlboro). Also very controversial for a party leader to put up posters of themselves in a seat they're not even contesting. Here's hoping the S.A public are smarter than these gutter politics.

The Liberals tried to ban election posters and were supported by the Greens, but Labor blocked the proposal.

These stupid posters are starting to appear in suburban side streets now too.

There was a time when they were high up on stobie poles. Now they're placed haphazardly and are so low they cause an obstruction to drivers/pedestrians view/line of sight.

[SBD]

I've been away from Adelaide for only a few days and I have to say i'm very disappointed to see some of the election placards placed around the city since then.... Steven Marshalls face imposed on a rat, or the name Marshall replacing a cigarette brand (Marlboro). Also very controversial for a party leader to put up posters of themselves in a seat they're not even contesting. Here's hoping the S.A public are smarter than these gutter politics.

The Liberals tried to ban election posters and were supported by the Greens, but Labor blocked the proposal.

These stupid posters are starting to appear in suburban side streets now too.

There was a time when they were high up on stobie poles. Now they're placed haphazardly and are so low they cause an obstruction to drivers/pedestrians view/line of sight.

I think the fact that they are lower reflects the WHS considerations. I'm not sure if there was a change in law or only in its application, but I don't think they let volunteers climb step ladders on the back of utes any more. There might be limits on how high they can go with a ladder on the ground leaning on the poles too.

[gnrc_louis]

The Liberals tried to ban election posters and were supported by the Greens, but Labor blocked the proposal.

These stupid posters are starting to appear in suburban side streets now too.

There was a time when they were high up on stobie poles. Now they're placed haphazardly and are so low they cause an obstruction to drivers/pedestrians view/line of sight.

I think the fact that they are lower reflects the WHS considerations. I'm not sure if there was a change in law or only in its application, but I don't think they let volunteers climb step ladders on the back of utes any more. There might be limits on how high they can go with a ladder on the ground leaning on the poles too.

They’re meant to be at least 2m high, nothing to do with “whs considerations,” just party volunteers not following instruction.

[gnrc_louis]

Let's be honest, a lot of it is about appearance over policies these days.
Mali is a hunk compared to Marshall. I can imagine a heap of 50yo ladies wanting him appearing on their 7news Primetime.

Seriously?

Do you mean that Croydon is full of shallow politically naive middle aged women? Or do mean that the whole metro area is full of them, but smart enough that when they see a picture of Peter Malinauskas on a stobie pole, they will vote for Lee Odenwalder or Blair Boyer or whever the local ALP candidate is, despite them not having been mentioned on teh Malinauskas poster, and he isn't on their ballot paper?

Or if I look more carefully, will I discover there are only Malinauskas posters in electorates where a donkey vote favours the ALP candidate and the Malinauskas posters are there to deliberately confuse people?

A reasonable amount of people believe you vote for the leader, not your local candidate - look at the anger when Rudd was replaced by Gillard. “We voted for him!” Etc. Same thing at the last Federal Election - the Morrison Cabinet was near entirely anonymous. Common tactic when a party thinks their leader is a good selling point.

As I stated in an earlier post, it’s called running a presidential style election and it’s a common tactic in Australian politics despite our system of government. It isn’t about “confusing” people per se.

[Llessur2002]

It's not an entirely invalid reason to vote for a particular party though as the leader of the winning party will by default become a prominent figurehead/ambassador for the state or nation. If I were ambivalent between two parties at a local level but one of those parties had a more competent or palatable leader then it would quite likely sway my vote.

In the current situation Marshall has been a bit of a wet rag - the Liberals have been in varying states of disarray since they were elected and their cohesion and ability to progress important issues has suffered as a result (a good example being the shut down of parliament for the last couple of months). If you can sell the message that the leader of your party is less likely to allow breakdowns in discipline and cohesion to disrupt the ability of the political system to function then that seems valid enough to me.

The faction to which the leader belongs is also likely to have a significant impact on the make up of the cabinet and therefore the political agenda of the government for the duration of their term.

[Jaymz]

They’re pretty much universally known as that, but as you wish.

I just finished reading an article in The Australian about the upcoming election and it actually used the word "corflutes". Can't say i'd ever seen or heard it before. A quick search and I find it was actually "word of the month" on the Oxford website back in March 2017 and describes it as...

The word corflute derives from a proprietary name for the corrugated plastic sheeting used for temporary signage, and signs made from this have been a feature of Australian campaigns for many years

Anyways, I feel the use of these negative "corflutes" could actually have the opposite effect on some swinging voters. They could be seen as a dirty tactic and perhaps not a trait they would like in a Government.

[gnrc_louis]

They’re pretty much universally known as that, but as you wish.

I just finished reading an article in The Australian about the upcoming election and it actually used the word "corflutes". Can't say i'd ever seen or heard it before. A quick search and I find it was actually "word of the month" on the Oxford website back in March 2017 and describes it as...

The word corflute derives from a proprietary name for the corrugated plastic sheeting used for temporary signage, and signs made from this have been a feature of Australian campaigns for many years

Anyways, I feel the use of these negative "corflutes" could actually have the opposite effect on some swinging voters. They could be seen as a dirty tactic and perhaps not a trait they would like in a Government.

Don’t really want to get into an article about semantics, but here’s an example of one of the many ABC articles which calls them corflutes: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/p ... s/13592646

As to negative campaigning, you’ll find both sides are engaging in it pretty heavily (as always) and there’s some evidence that it is in fact effective. Anecdotally, look at the last Federal election - the negative campaigning around the death tax was very effective for the coalition. “Mediscare” worked for labor too in 2016.

[Nathan]

As to negative campaigning, you’ll find both sides are engaging in it pretty heavily (as always) and there’s some evidence that it is in fact effective. Anecdotally, look at the last Federal election - the negative campaigning around the death tax was very effective for the coalition. “Mediscare” worked for labor too in 2016.

The anti-Shorten campaigns were highly effective at the last federal campaign as well, with an Adelaide ad agency patting themselves on the back pretty hard for "winning" the election for the LNP.

[HiTouch]

Let's be honest, a lot of it is about appearance over policies these days.
Mali is a hunk compared to Marshall. I can imagine a heap of 50yo ladies wanting him appearing on their 7news Primetime.

Seriously?

Do you mean that Croydon is full of shallow politically naive middle aged women? Or do mean that the whole metro area is full of them, but smart enough that when they see a picture of Peter Malinauskas on a stobie pole, they will vote for Lee Odenwalder or Blair Boyer or whever the local ALP candidate is, despite them not having been mentioned on teh Malinauskas poster, and he isn't on their ballot paper?

Or if I look more carefully, will I discover there are only Malinauskas posters in electorates where a donkey vote favours the ALP candidate and the Malinauskas posters are there to deliberately confuse people?

I dont just mean Croydon, I mean the whole metro. Appearance definitely plays a massive part for the populace. Have you been to Golden Grove or Tea Tree Gully? They are the definition of White Upper middle class ladies who find ginger bread a little bit spicy. Incredibly shallow. Rhiannon Pearce will win King. Blair Boyer will win Wright and Olivia Savvas will win Newland.

[[Shuz]]

I'm very surprised the state election commission hasn't ruled that Labor needs to take down the corflutes that just has a photo solely of Malinauskas with a For The Future slogan in seats where he is not running as the local member. It seems to imply that he is running as the local member. The politically savvy are smart enough to know the difference, but the average Joe probably doesn't. The distinction should be made a bit clearer; Peter Malinauskas, Leader of the Labor Party or something to that effect. I wouldn't allow "running for Premier for South Australia" as technically he has to win his own seat first in order to be confirmed as Premier by the Governor General after the election. It's not gonna happen, but there would be a lot of egg on his face if Labor won, but he lost his seat so the premiership would fall to the 2nd in charge of the Labor Party.

I argue this on the basis that I'd you jmagine if the Liberals had won in 2007, but John Howard still lost his seat. That would have been a bit of a clusterfuck selling that to the Australian public afterwards that the leader people thought they were getting, didn't get the job.