VinyTapestry849 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 9:34 am
Forget London, that market is served by emirates and Qatar
Also forget Shanghai and Beijing, that market is served by China southern and Singapore airlines.
The ones on your list which have a reasonable chance of happening are Christchurch & dehli. We won’t be getting a Los Angeles route for a long long time. United airlines always start off new Oceania route with a direct flight to San Francisco purely because of the large business market there.
Idk about Tokyo, Malinauskas Went to Japan last year, and was flatly refused a direct flight when he asked the Japanese airlines. There is not enough traffic
Bangkok and Phuket are easily reachable by Singapore airlines but even if the passenger wants a cheaper alternative if they can just transit via Perth and get there under $1000.
I expect United Airlines
to make wind in Adelaide before 2029, they have a large 787 order and have very much emphasised their goal to increase Their Oceania destinations. United Airlines imo is the likely next Airline to come to Adelaide
The US based Marriott hotel group’s new hotel at GPO says he expects United Airlines to arrive at Adelaide within five years too
Yeah, the biggest role Emirates and Qatar have in Adelaide is providing through connections to Europe. In any event, direct flights to London at this stage are still pretty experimental. Even where they exist, I expect the majority of passengers still opt for one stop flights considering the price and enormous amount of time in the cabin. I can't see Qantas trying it from Adelaide any time soon anyway. They don't seem to want anything to do with Adelaide.
I'm also skeptical about getting service to Shanghai or Beijing, but more because I suspect Adelaide Airport will want to sure up China Southern's numbers at this stage rather than allow them to be cannibalised. Guangzhou is in the far south of China and not particularly well located to serve the bulk of the population. Shanghai is more centrally located from that perspective. The usefulness of a Guangzhou is a bit marginal anyway in the event we have a connection to Hong Kong, as the two cities are extremely close to each other. Obviously there are some advantages to having a direct connection into the "mainland" from the perspective that you can avoid dealing with the Hong Kong/mainland customs barrier, but it doesn't really increase the geographical range of service from Adelaide Airport by much.
Elsewhere in Australia, especially from Melbourne and Sydney, there are very high service level to China. Sydney has regular direct connections to 15 cities on the mainland, some are multiple times per day. Obviously demand is considerably lower in Adelaide than in the bigger cities, but considering just how high service levels are in the other cities, you would think proportionately we could hope for a direct connection to one more city, most sensibly Shanghai. A China Eastern connection would mean not only better connections to China itself but also bargain onwards connections to Europe and elsewhere. That said, China Southern will achieve that to a large extent, although their price point seems to be slightly more premium than China Eastern.
We definitely have a good chance with Christchurch, and I think Adelaide Airport has said as much.
Delhi is a tricky one, because even though demand is high, international flights to India are few and far between. From what I understand, the Indian government has put in place restrictions on landing slots for most foreign airlines to protect the local airline industry. The problem is, there aren't a lot of local airlines, and for the most part they aren't developed to the point that they have big international networks. There's a chance that this will change in the future, as Air India seems to be trying to develop a major international hub in Delhi, similar to what has happened in the Gulf states. Delhi is in quite a good location to be an international hub, but we will see how that goes.
At this stage, everyone is fighting for the small number of flights that do exist into India. In massive contrast to the situation with China discussed above, Melbourne and Sydney each only have direct connections to 2 Indian cities, and Perth and Brisbane have none. I think we are long way down on the list for Delhi, even though demand is high, demand is higher elsewhere without being served.