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ml69 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 am

To be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).

40,000 is just Riverlea. What about all the other housing developments in the decades to come that will fill up all that land between Riverlea and the existing northern suburbs?
$3 billion for a rail line, as opposed to how many ongoing billions for road maintenance and road widening and upgrades that will be needed to cope with a huge surge in population in that area in the decades ahead?
I think the cheaper option would be the rail?
The other thing that should be considered, I think, is where are all those extra cars going to end up? They will end up clogging up existing roads and the city etc, creating untold congestion. That's not ideal.
Adelaide needs to get into the habit of seeing public transport as a viable method of transportation on a daily basis. Might be hard to get that going for the majority of areas at the moment because its too difficult to build new rail lines, but new development areas should 100% feature rail lines.

Instead, I think we could realistically build a dedicated road for high-speed feeder buses along the same route. These feeder buses would commence as local routes in Riverlea then connect to bus stations with park & ride facilities (like Obahn) at Riverlea > Virginia > Direk (Bolivar Rd), interchanging with the Gawler line at Nurlutta. Rebuild Nurlutta as a bus interchange station with timed connection with the Gawler train.

This high-speed feeder bus (with overpasses on the route) would be relatively time competitive with rail. There would be a loss of a few minutes at the point of interchange only. Could be built for a fraction of the cost of rail (therefore business case more likely to succeed), and still provides commuters with a fast journey.

What happens with the buses when they get off that dedicated road from Riverlea? They end up on the rest of the road network, creating more congestion and slowing down traffic flows as they stop/go from bus stops.

A Concordia rail extension (future catchment 25,000 people) is more likely to go ahead. It’s shorter (approx 7km length) and is a simple extension to the Gawler line.

Roseworthy I think is also unlikely as an urban rail extension. Buses can run along Main North Rd and Horrocks Hwy to connect Gawler Central with Willaston, Hewett, St Yves and Roseworthy. The existing Roseworthy rail alignment isn’t well-located to serve existing population centres.

Personally I think we need rail extensions to all these significant growth areas in the north of the metro boundary. It's where the majority of the population growth is going to be.

ml69 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 am

To be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).

Instead, I think we could realistically build a dedicated road for high-speed feeder buses along the same route. These feeder buses would commence as local routes in Riverlea then connect to bus stations with park & ride facilities (like Obahn) at Riverlea > Virginia > Direk (Bolivar Rd), interchanging with the Gawler line at Nurlutta. Rebuild Nurlutta as a bus interchange station with timed connection with the Gawler train.

This high-speed feeder bus (with overpasses on the route) would be relatively time competitive with rail. There would be a loss of a few minutes at the point of interchange only. Could be built for a fraction of the cost of rail (therefore business case more likely to succeed), and still provides commuters with a fast journey.

A Concordia rail extension (future catchment 25,000 people) is more likely to go ahead. It’s shorter (approx 7km length) and is a simple extension to the Gawler line.

Roseworthy I think is also unlikely as an urban rail extension. Buses can run along Main North Rd and Horrocks Hwy to connect Gawler Central with Willaston, Hewett, St Yves and Roseworthy. The existing Roseworthy rail alignment isn’t well-located to serve existing population centres.

No one wants to ride a bus that distance. It doesn't need to be a branch line from Salisbury, a railway could branch from Mawson Lakes, run alongside Ryans Road, Port Wakefield Road up to Two Wells with stations at Parafield Gardens, Bolivar, Virginia, Buckland Park and Two Wells. You then have local buses feeding to those stations, there will be plenty room to put parking too.

ml69 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 am

To be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).

Instead, I think we could realistically build a dedicated road for high-speed feeder buses along the same route. These feeder buses would commence as local routes in Riverlea then connect to bus stations with park & ride facilities (like Obahn) at Riverlea > Virginia > Direk (Bolivar Rd), interchanging with the Gawler line at Nurlutta. Rebuild Nurlutta as a bus interchange station with timed connection with the Gawler train.

This high-speed feeder bus (with overpasses on the route) would be relatively time competitive with rail. There would be a loss of a few minutes at the point of interchange only. Could be built for a fraction of the cost of rail (therefore business case more likely to succeed), and still provides commuters with a fast journey.

A Concordia rail extension (future catchment 25,000 people) is more likely to go ahead. It’s shorter (approx 7km length) and is a simple extension to the Gawler line.

Roseworthy I think is also unlikely as an urban rail extension. Buses can run along Main North Rd and Horrocks Hwy to connect Gawler Central with Willaston, Hewett, St Yves and Roseworthy. The existing Roseworthy rail alignment isn’t well-located to serve existing population centres.

The business case can be summarised by looking at the various alternatives and comparing the costs.

So, imagine zero PT in these areas as a base case. That would mean an early need to put extra lanes on South Rd to cater tor the extra cars.

How much would even one extra lane cost to go from Two Wells as far as, say, Grange Rd?

That is the cost that alternatives need to be compared with.

In this case, one would need to look at heavy rail, light rail, O-Bahn, and standard bus combinations and their costs. It may well be that your solution works out cheaper overall, but it's not really obvious whether it is, because if we still have to duplicate some of South Rd, that's a big down side. This is where SA should be planning: looking at these alternatives.

Eurostar wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 11:47 am

ml69 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 am

To be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).

Instead, I think we could realistically build a dedicated road for high-speed feeder buses along the same route. These feeder buses would commence as local routes in Riverlea then connect to bus stations with park & ride facilities (like Obahn) at Riverlea > Virginia > Direk (Bolivar Rd), interchanging with the Gawler line at Nurlutta. Rebuild Nurlutta as a bus interchange station with timed connection with the Gawler train.

This high-speed feeder bus (with overpasses on the route) would be relatively time competitive with rail. There would be a loss of a few minutes at the point of interchange only. Could be built for a fraction of the cost of rail (therefore business case more likely to succeed), and still provides commuters with a fast journey.

A Concordia rail extension (future catchment 25,000 people) is more likely to go ahead. It’s shorter (approx 7km length) and is a simple extension to the Gawler line.

Roseworthy I think is also unlikely as an urban rail extension. Buses can run along Main North Rd and Horrocks Hwy to connect Gawler Central with Willaston, Hewett, St Yves and Roseworthy. The existing Roseworthy rail alignment isn’t well-located to serve existing population centres.

No one wants to ride a bus that distance. It doesn't need to be a branch line from Salisbury, a railway could branch from Mawson Lakes, run alongside Ryans Road, Port Wakefield Road up to Two Wells with stations at Parafield Gardens, Bolivar, Virginia, Buckland Park and Two Wells. You then have local buses feeding to those stations, there will be plenty room to put parking too.

Are we a bunch of white-collar office workers imagining that everyone who chooses to live at Riverlea Park, St Yves, Concordia will be just like we were?

There may still be market gardens and packing sheds in the Virginia/Two Wells area where SA Water has installed irrigation mains fed from Bolivar. There will be schools and eventually aged care facilities needing staff. There will be an aircraft heavy maintenance facility at Edinburgh. There will be huge numbers of white and blue collar workers needed at Osborne. If more rail freight enters and leaves from the north (eg eastern bypass), then there will likely be more rail and warehousing in the Penfield area. Experience from COVID might mean that less people aspire to commute to an office five days a week.

Looking at the size of the whole Riverlea development and how much as been built so far, it's easy to guess that most of the future homeowners are still at school now. We have the opportunity to help them recognise a "new normal" that is different than what our parents showed us to aspire to.

If a line to Two Wells is built then a line from Two Wells to Gawler would be pretty good, creating a giant loop north of Adelaide

Wednesday 24 April
More Cancelled trains on Gawler Central and Seaford rail line services.

https://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/servic ... y-24-april
https://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/servic ... y-24-april

Published: Wednesday 24 April 2024 about 1:00PM

SBD wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 2:41 pm

[A WHOLE HEAP OF ASPIRATIONAL STUFF]
Looking at the size of the whole Riverlea development and how much as been built so far, it's easy to guess that most of the future homeowners are still at school now. We have the opportunity to help them recognise a "new normal" that is different than what our parents showed us to aspire to.

That's all nice, but the area is being marketed and sold in no small part around the travel times to Adelaide so it's entirely 100% the fact that your dreams for it aren't gonna happen.

ml69 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 am

To be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).

If we are going to expand rail anywhere at all in metropolitan Adelaide, I would have thought that Virginia/Two Wells would be one of the simplest and cheapest option by far. There is an existing rail corridor from Salisbury. There would be no need to acquire land or build expensive tunnels like most other projects would require. All that would be needed is a new, at grade double-track broad gauge line along the existing alignment with a few new stations: Salisbury North, Edinburgh, Virginia, Two Wells.

It would really be very simple and quick to implement and would offer much better bang for buck than other potential extensions that have been discussed on this forum like the Hills line to Mount Barker or extending the Flinders line further south.

A branch line from Virginia to Riverlea/Buckland Park also needs not be too expensive if we act fast to reserve a corridor. As posted on the Riverlea thread, while the current development masterplan does not reserve a corridor for rail access, it is still possible to reserve one directly to the south, and to refocus development around the new stations there.

dbl96 wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 24, 2024 3:37 pm

ml69 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 am

To be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).

If we are going to expand rail anywhere at all in metropolitan Adelaide, I would have thought that Virginia/Two Wells would be one of the simplest and cheapest option by far. There is an existing rail corridor from Salisbury. There would be no need to acquire land or build expensive tunnels like most other projects would require. All that would be needed is a new, at grade double-track broad gauge line along the existing alignment with a few new stations: Salisbury North, Edinburgh, Virginia, Two Wells.

It would really be very simple and quick to implement and would offer much better bang for buck than other potential extensions that have been discussed on this forum like the Hills line to Mount Barker or extending the Flinders line further south.

A branch line from Virginia to Riverlea/Buckland Park also needs not be too expensive if we act fast to reserve a corridor. As posted on the Riverlea thread, while the current development masterplan does not reserve a corridor for rail access, it is still possible to reserve one directly to the south, and to refocus development around the new stations there.

Riverlea rail access.png

Or, even cheaper, just duplicate the standard gauge as far as Two Wells. Allow joint freight/passenger use of the duplicated line from Salisbury to Two Wells. From Salisbury to the CBD, have the existing line dual gauge...as is done into Southern Cross Station in Melbourne.

I don’t see how any of the potential Gawler line extensions (Two wells, Roseworthy and Concordia) would be overly expensive or difficult to work out.

They seem to me at least to be the simplest options to grow the rail network compared to some of the pie in the sky stuff I see mentioned on here.

It isn't difficult, we just need government to pull their finger out.

Look at the engineering feats around the world, even in developing countries. A few new train lines aren't anything major.

rev wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:11 am

It isn't difficult, we just need government to pull their finger out.

Look at the engineering feats around the world, even in developing countries. A few new train lines aren't anything major.

We’ve just go so used to nothing happening in this country that we think even the most basic infrastructure projects are difficult or impossible.

dbl96 wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 1:01 pm

rev wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:11 am

It isn't difficult, we just need government to pull their finger out.

Look at the engineering feats around the world, even in developing countries. A few new train lines aren't anything major.

We’ve just go so used to nothing happening in this country that we think even the most basic infrastructure projects are difficult or impossible.

Don't know about the rest of the country, but in SA for sure. Doesn't help that the government has to play up to the masses who are mostly scared of their own shadows in this state.

There are practical difficulties with running high frequency services on single tracks. I'm not sure if the corridors are wide enough to easily duplicate the track without negotiating with dozens of land owners. Not impossible, but neither quick nor cheap.

Victoria has been actively funding removal of level crossings. South Australia has done a few, but without any visible intent to address them all, or even the high-priority-but-difficult ones.

To me, the bigger questions are why we would want commuter rail from these extreme outer suburbs and county towns to feed in to Adelaide City. If it's available, the "induced demand" argument will fill these outer suburbs with people intending to commute to Adelaide, then complaining about how long they spend wasted time commuting. High frequency local buses to employment and service centres might encourage people to live and work closer together. Residential buildings in Bowden and Parkside are better placed for Adelaide workers, where there are already frequent short duration commuter services.

We should be thinking what we want the city and state to look like in 5, 10 , 50 years, and design and build services to help us reach that environment. Do we really want everyone to be employed in Adelaide City, but sleeping in detatched houses being built on farmland further and further away (Roseworthy, Concordia, Wasleys, Freeling, Lyndoch, ...)?

It won't happen overnight, but it won't happen at all if the planning decisions actively work towards something we don't want!

SBD wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:47 pm

There are practical difficulties with running high frequency services on single tracks. I'm not sure if the corridors are wide enough to easily duplicate the track without negotiating with dozens of land owners. Not impossible, but neither quick nor cheap.

Victoria has been actively funding removal of level crossings. South Australia has done a few, but without any visible intent to address them all, or even the high-priority-but-difficult ones.

To me, the bigger questions are why we would want commuter rail from these extreme outer suburbs and county towns to feed in to Adelaide City. If it's available, the "induced demand" argument will fill these outer suburbs with people intending to commute to Adelaide, then complaining about how long they spend wasted time commuting. High frequency local buses to employment and service centres might encourage people to live and work closer together. Residential buildings in Bowden and Parkside are better placed for Adelaide workers, where there are already frequent short duration commuter services.

We should be thinking what we want the city and state to look like in 5, 10 , 50 years, and design and build services to help us reach that environment. Do we really want everyone to be employed in Adelaide City, but sleeping in detatched houses being built on farmland further and further away (Roseworthy, Concordia, Wasleys, Freeling, Lyndoch, ...)?

It won't happen overnight, but it won't happen at all if the planning decisions actively work towards something we don't want!

I’m pretty sure the corridor to Two Wells is wide enough to have at least a double track - significant sections of it already do, like the long passing loop you cross when driving along the Northern Expressway.

I’m not sure how land ownership of the corridors works though, with the state, ARTC, Adelaide Metro etc. There may be issues with ARTC being territorial about the use of its tracks, which is why I was suggesting triple track, with an entirely new Adelaide Metro only double track line parallel to the existing ARTC line.

The way I see it, these areas are no different from Gawler. They are a similar distance from Adelaide and have a similar relationship to the city as Gawler does. Do we withdraw passenger rail from Gawler in order to reduce the number of people commuting to Adelaide from there, despite the high demand? All you are likely to achieve is to encourage a whole lot more people to clog up the roads commuting by car.

I’m not in favour of filling in all the land between Salisbury and Two Wells with an unbroken belt of suburbs. The market gardens around Virginia and the Gawler River are some of the most important agricultural lands in the state, and they can’t easily be shifted. We need to uphold urban growth boundaries around Virginia/Riverlea and Two Wells to ensure that they remain as geographically distinct urban areas, just as we have done with Gawler. But none of this means we can’t provide proper public transport service to the large numbers of people who we now know are going to live in these towns. If I had it my way, Riverlea would never have been developed, but we are too far gone now, so we have to make the best of the situation we are left with.

I’m not saying that there should not also be local bus connections which feed into the railway, but longer distance, higher speed transport options are required also, considering the number of people who are going to be living in the north west corridor. The primary purpose of the rail connection is not just to move people in and out of the CBD. You will notice that the proposed new line interchanges with the Gawler line at Salisbury, which is the major hub for this region. The rail line would provide a rapid and efficient connection for residents of the north-west corridor to access services which are concentrated in Salisbury, including transport interchange connections to other local areas in the northern suburbs. As I have mentioned previously, Salisbury should be developed, with appropriate zoning, to further solidify its role as Adelaide’s second CBD, one located centrally for the bulk of the northern suburb’s population. One of the main reasons I favour Salisbury over Elizabeth for this role is because Salisbury sits in a more geographically central location, at a rail junction.