rhino wrote:Aidan, ARTC spent a lot of money studying the viability of the bypass, and came to the conclusion that it would not be beneficial to build it, and that the current alignment can be adjusted to cope quite well enough with the rail freight task for at least the next quarter century.
I don't know why they bothered spending all that money on the study, when they could have just logged in here and asked for Aidan's advice. For that matter, I don't know why everyone doesn't do that. It would at least save heaps of money on doing the studies, even if the outcomes are the opposite to what the studies conclude.
If all they wanted to know were whethher something should be built, that would be true, though I don't guarantee my advice will always be freely available. But the value of a study extends far beyond Its conclusion on whether something shouold be built - it's also important to know why (and the way changing circumstances could affect the result) and most importantly, how. Knowing how to maximize the costs and minimize the benefits (and the risks) may well be more valuable than actually quantifying them.
AG wrote:Go do a search for the Adelaide Rail Freight Movements Study and read it. ARTC comissioned well respected engineering consultants GHD to do the work for them.
I downloaded it months ago and was unimpressed. GHD are very well respected, but that doesn't mean they're always right. No matter how well respected the engineers are, there are likely to be some things they fail to think of. Indeed discovering that was one of the reasons why I decided to study civil engineering.
GHD's excellent reputation is well deserved, but if all their studies were as shoddy as that one then their reputation would be mud! The main flaw was that it made no attempt to properly calculate noise. Instead their noise costs were based on the length of track. They ignored the effects of curvature, and their differential treatment of noise in urban and rural areas was limited to an assumption that the cost of noise was only ten times higher in built up areas.
Rereading the report, a few other things struck me: Rhino's concerns about travel times are unfounded. The effects of different interest rates seem to be wrongly labelled. They don't appear to have considered whether savings coud be made by utilizing some of the trackbed of the old Cambrai to Monarto line. And the costs of the projects that failing to build it would make necessary appear to have been underestimated.
And there's also the problem of the limited timeframe considered. As I mentioned before, the benefits of constructing the line will rise and keep rising but because land value is a high proportion of the total cost, the cost of constructing it if we do nothing now will also keep rising quickly, especially when we consider the rising population in the Adelaide environs. We really should have constructed this line at the time of standardization (it would have saved a fortune) but building it now is the next best thing.