40,000 is just Riverlea. What about all the other housing developments in the decades to come that will fill up all that land between Riverlea and the existing northern suburbs?ml69 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:15 amTo be honest, I cannot see a business case for urban rail to Virginia and Riverlea ever stacking up, despite being quite a large potential catchment area (40,000+ people). It would be an extension of about 16-17km which you would need to double-track to join it to the existing Gawler line. This is likely to cost in the order of $2-3 billion in today’s $$ (happy to be challenged on the figures).
$3 billion for a rail line, as opposed to how many ongoing billions for road maintenance and road widening and upgrades that will be needed to cope with a huge surge in population in that area in the decades ahead?
I think the cheaper option would be the rail?
The other thing that should be considered, I think, is where are all those extra cars going to end up? They will end up clogging up existing roads and the city etc, creating untold congestion. That's not ideal.
Adelaide needs to get into the habit of seeing public transport as a viable method of transportation on a daily basis. Might be hard to get that going for the majority of areas at the moment because its too difficult to build new rail lines, but new development areas should 100% feature rail lines.
What happens with the buses when they get off that dedicated road from Riverlea? They end up on the rest of the road network, creating more congestion and slowing down traffic flows as they stop/go from bus stops.Instead, I think we could realistically build a dedicated road for high-speed feeder buses along the same route. These feeder buses would commence as local routes in Riverlea then connect to bus stations with park & ride facilities (like Obahn) at Riverlea > Virginia > Direk (Bolivar Rd), interchanging with the Gawler line at Nurlutta. Rebuild Nurlutta as a bus interchange station with timed connection with the Gawler train.
This high-speed feeder bus (with overpasses on the route) would be relatively time competitive with rail. There would be a loss of a few minutes at the point of interchange only. Could be built for a fraction of the cost of rail (therefore business case more likely to succeed), and still provides commuters with a fast journey.
Personally I think we need rail extensions to all these significant growth areas in the north of the metro boundary. It's where the majority of the population growth is going to be.A Concordia rail extension (future catchment 25,000 people) is more likely to go ahead. It’s shorter (approx 7km length) and is a simple extension to the Gawler line.
Roseworthy I think is also unlikely as an urban rail extension. Buses can run along Main North Rd and Horrocks Hwy to connect Gawler Central with Willaston, Hewett, St Yves and Roseworthy. The existing Roseworthy rail alignment isn’t well-located to serve existing population centres.